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Escalation Risks Rising? Airpower in Kargil and Pahalgam

In the 1999 Kargil conflict, the Indian Air Force in the end acquitted itself admirably; in the 2025 Pahalgam case, the IAF's performance appeared to be lackluster at best. What explains the markedly different outcomes of the use of airpower? And what strategic lessons did India learn? One to watch is New Delhi likely concluded that, next time, they must escalate to strikes against military targets at the onset of hostilities, running greater Pakistani miscalculation risks.

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India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, center, with Indian army officer Colonel Sofiya Qureshi, left, and Indian Air Force officer Wing Commander Vyomika Singh, right, address a press conference
India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, center, with Indian army officer Colonel Sofiya Qureshi, left, and Indian Air Force officer Wing Commander Vyomika Singh, right, address a press conference after India struck multiple sites inside Pakistani controlled territory with missiles under Operation Sindoor, in New Delhi, India, May 7, 2025. 
Recommended citation

Ganguly, Sumit, and Spenser A. Warren. 2025. “Escalation Risks Rising? Airpower in Kargil and Pahalgam.” The Washington Quarterly 48 (3): 127–43.

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Sumit Ganguly