Israel in Gaza: The Quicksand of Societal War

Abstract

Since Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack, Israel has engaged in expanding societal conflict, which involves directly impacting and indirectly engineering the emotions and behaviour of entire societies. Israel’s military has dealt its adversaries severe operational blows, but has failed to translate them into enduring strategic gains. Extensively harming or immiserating civilians is unlikely to yield such gains unless the perpetrator is willing to engage in conquest by annihilation. The militarily stronger party can rationalise societal war as an effort to deter as well as avenge, but international condemnation and the target population’s enduring humiliation and fervent desire for retribution are likely to frustrate both goals. Accordingly, Israel should complement its threat to apply military power with the promise of a political path to possible statehood that many Palestinians desire and see Hamas as blocking.