Seeing Through “Transparent Oceans”: Emerging Technology, Submarine Vulnerability, and the Future of MAD

Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) are widely believed to be secure second-strike forces and a strong deterrent against nuclear war and nuclear coercion. Could emerging technologies render SSBNs vulnerable to disarming strikes, undermining the MAD world? This study examines technologies featured in the “transparent oceans” debate. It finds that only applying AI algorithms to passive sonar signal processing can enhance detection, and that these advances are evolutionary rather than revolutionary. It is highly unlikely that a threat to SSBNs will materialize in the coming decades.