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Valerie Karplus authored the paper, which examines the implications of high interest rates, trade tensions, and energy geopolitics for the deployment of technologies aligned with deep decarbonization across industries around the world.
The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements has released a paper written by Valerie Karplus exploring relationships among trade, industrial policy, national security, and the macroeconomy—with primary reference to China, the United States, and Europe.
High interest rates, trade tensions, and energy geopolitics have coincided with an about face on climate policy in the United States, raising questions about the future of the global energy transition. This paper examines the implications of these developments for momentum to deploy technologies aligned with deep decarbonization across industries around the world. Enablers of deep decarbonization are now more differentiated across industries. Installed costs of clean technologies are achieving parity with incumbents in some industries, while in others deployment faces formidable capital and operating cost hurdles or supply chain security concerns. While dedicated climate policy support remains important, sustaining momentum will require attention to the broader institutional enablers of energy transition. Addressing bottlenecks in the construction of new energy infrastructure, building trust in supply chain relationships, and increasing availability of low-cost sources of financing for energy and infrastructure projects are hypothesized as no-regret strategies for addressing near-term development needs while increasing the likelihood and potential of future opportunities to increase climate ambition.
Valerie Karplus is Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, and Associate Director at the Wilton E. Scott Institute for Energy Innovation — in Carnegie Mellon University’s College of Engineering.
The paper was written as part of a larger project on climate-change and trade policy supported by Energy Foundation China (EFC).
Valerie Karplus. “International Cooperation to Keep Progress on Climate Change Within Reach.” Policy Brief. May 2025. English and Chinese versions available here.
Michael A. Mehling. “In the Vortex of Great Power Competition: Climate, Trade, and Geostrategic Rivalry in U.S.–China–EU Relations.” Discussion Paper. March 2025. Paper and summary brief in English here.
Michael A. Mehling. “Climate Change and Trade Policy: An Overview of Current Issues. Policy Brief.” December 2024. English and Chinese versions available here.
Karplus, Valerie J. “Sustaining the Global Energy Transition.” Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, September 2025
From Science, Technology, and Public Policy
