Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, etc., are working hard to supplant the United States on the global scene as a great power and advance their interests in different parts of the world in sectors like energy, security, technology, finance, trade, and diplomacy.
The Black Sea and its littoral states are one such region, which lies at the intersection of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. It is a node, whose geopolitical and geostrategic importance stems from being a nexus of global trade, security, energy, and economic resources. Multiple factors challenge the region, including being a frontier between the West and autocratic Russia, being a meeting point of democracy in the West, Russian military aggression to the north, increasing Chinese influence to the East, and Middle Eastern instability to the south. Currently, the Black Sea can be considered a "microcosm" for the ongoing transformation of international politics. It symbolizes the multi-layered dividing lines that characterize the current conflicts between Russia, Turkey, and Western democratic states — whether the issue is trade, energy, geopolitical influence, or control of the Black Sea.
Ongoing turbulence in the region directly affects European Union (EU) security, and it can no longer be regarded as a secondary consideration for transatlantic security. However, U.S. resolve is noticeably lacking in the face of Russian aggression and Chinese commercial inroads into the region. Why should the United States care about the Black Sea Region? Its significance stems from 1) geopolitical and strategic concerns, 2) energy and food security, and 3) ideational factors.
Geopolitical and Strategic Concerns:
First, the region acts as a barrier against Russian expansionism, which is crucial to U.S., NATO, and EU security. Great power competition between Russia and the West has returned. The United States has security obligations in Europe and maintaining the cohesion of the NATO alliance is one of its main priorities. The Black Sea Region is critical when discussing EU security. In the last decade, Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey have been trying to influence and dominate EU security. It has led to greater instability on Europe's southeastern flank and challenged the United States' longstanding role as Europe's primary security guarantor. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the power of the players, and if the United States wants to retain its status as a great power and remain a security guarantor for Europe, then it must increase and maintain its influence in the Black Sea Region.
Energy and Food Security:
In an interconnected global economy, the Black Sea Region's position as a producer and conduit for fossil fuels makes it impossible to consider it in isolation. As Europe is cutting links with Russia, alternative routes to Western markets for trade, transport, and energy through the Black Sea are becoming increasingly important. Black Sea gas reserves are being explored in the offshore each littoral state. Important oil and gas transit links crisscross the region, as do many important fiber-optic cables and shipping lanes. In addition, the Black Sea Region is now emerging as a potential renewable energy hub. These could become the linchpin of an integrated regional economy.
The South Caucasus is set to become an exporter of renewable energy to the European Union. The Black Sea submarine cable agreement, signed on December 17, 2022, between the governments of Hungary, Romania, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, is primarily intended to transmit renewable energy—mainly wind energy, as Azerbaijan has significant potential for both onshore and offshore wind—from the South Caucasus to Europe. This cable will help the countries on both sides of the Black Sea improve energy security, decarbonize their energy supplies, and develop renewable energy.
Moreover, the Black Sea has been a significant trading route connecting Europe, Asia, and the Middle East for centuries. Nowadays, the Black Sea Region's neighboring states, particularly Ukraine, Russia, and Romania, are among the top global grain producers. The production, price, logistics of transport, and trade of grain are all at risk because of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Therefore, the Black Sea Region as a trade and export route should be important to the United States.
Ideational Factors:
Last but not least, the role of ideas, most notably growing anti-Westernism, and containment of the spread of democracy in the region should not be ignored by the United States. The Kremlin uses a wide array of tools, including hybrid warfare, economic blackmail, and military threats, tailored to the vulnerabilities of the Black Sea littoral states. As a result, the region faces weakened democratic institutions, undermining of the rule of law, and recurrent political crises. Therefore, keeping the Black Sea Region as the frontline of freedom in Europe is challenged, and this, in turn, challenges Western democracy in general. If self-determination and resisting authoritarianism is still a driver for U.S. foreign policy, then it needs to counter Russia’s wide array of tools to spread autocracy in the region.
For all of these geopolitical, economic, and ideological reasons, the United States should pay more attention to the strategically important Black Sea Region. Geopolitically, the Black Sea acts as a critical access point for projecting influence into Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Russia in particular views the Black Sea Region as vital to challenging Western presence in its backyard and expanding its sphere of influence. It has invaded Ukraine and Georgia in an attempt to maintain control over key ports. Competing with Russian expansionism in the Black Sea Region is important for upholding NATO's security interests in deterring aggression against alliance members. Economically, the region is a major global producer and transit route for both energy and food commodities. Countries like Ukraine and Russia account for over 25 percent of global wheat exports traded through the key Kerch Strait shipping lane. The Southern Gas Corridor also transports Caspian gas reserves to European energy markets. Maintaining open transit in the Black Sea is integral for European energy security goals to reduce dependence on Russia. Ideologically, the spread of Russian hybrid warfare techniques and economic coercion undermine democracy, rule of law, and trust in government in neighboring states. Through disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and covert military operations, Russia exerts political influence and stokes conflict to discourage pro-Western reforms in states like Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. Countering this form of "sharp power" is important for upholding Wilsonian principles of self-determination and resisting the authoritarian influence exemplified by Russia and China's growing presence in the region through initiatives like China's Belt and Road Initiative.
The ongoing Russian war against Ukraine further demonstrates the strategic importance of controlling the Black Sea Region. While Russia's overreach has weakened it economically and militarily, it continues the war and risks further destabilizing the wider region. As a geopolitical node connecting Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, developments in the Black Sea impact overlapping security, trade, and ideological dividing lines between major powers. By ceding influence in this region, the United States risks losing ground against strategic competitors like Russia and China who see the region as integral to their global ambitions. If the United States wants to maintain its role in European security and global standing against strategic competitors, it needs an increased and sustained presence—both economic and strategic—competing for influence across this multi-layered region.
Statements and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, the Harvard Kennedy School, or the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
