Would Russia Attack NATO and, If So, When?

Would Russia be capable of mounting an invasion into a NATO country? If so, would it exercise that capability, and when?¹ Western officials and experts provided no shortage of affirmative answers to these questions even before the launch of Russia’s full-blown invasion into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, to say less of the subsequent period. Understandably, many (but not all) of these forecasters have made the materialization of their predictions contingent on Russian-Ukrainian hostilities ending or pausing in a way that allows Russia to generate sufficient offensive capabilities.² To hear Inspector General of the Bundeswehr Carsten Breuer put it, Russia will be militarily ready to attack NATO countries by 2029, at the earliest. "By then, based on our analysis, Russia (will have) reconstituted its own forces to a degree that an attack against NATO soil could be possible," Lt. Gen. Breuer reportedly predicted during a visit to Poland in April 2024. Then-secretary-general of NATO Jens Stoltenberg also said that a Russian attack on a NATO country or countries as soon as 2029 was something he was concerned about. By that year, Russia would not only be ready to attack, but would also be willing to do so, according to Stoltenberg’s February 2024 remarks. Some of the more recent post-February 2022 forecasts, which I have found and catalogued in Table 1 below, assume it would take Russia longer to become ready for an attack. For instance, Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service in March warned that Russia could be fully ready for a "large-scale conventional war" by 2030. 

Of the predictions for when Russia will acquire the capability and/or intent to attack a NATO country, which I have visualized in Figure 1 below, the most frequently forecast years for when Russia would be ready to attack a NATO country (capability) are:

• 2030 (mentioned or implied 13 times),
• 2029 (mentioned or implied 12 times) and
• 2028 (mentioned or implied 10 times). 

As for when Russia might intend to attack a NATO country, the most frequently forecast years are 2027 and 2028 (each mentioned or implied 5 times).   

Whether and when Russia will be ready for new combat in Europe will depend on what kind of war it would want to wage once the conflict with Ukraine is over or frozen. As stated above, Russia will be prepared to wage a large-scale war by 2030, according to Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service. According to Baltic officials cited in the Wall Street Journal in April 2025, the Russian armed forces would be ready for a large-scale war against NATO in seven to 10 years after the end of Russia-Ukraine hostilities. As for a limited operation, Russia will be ready to conduct one against the Baltic states³ in two to three years after the end of Russia-Ukraine hostilities, according to a summary of these Baltic officials’ views that the Carnegie Endowment’s Michael Kofman shared with WSJ. 

However, not everyone thinks Russia would need to first be done with the war against Ukraine to attack a NATO country. For instance, ex-Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba believes “Moscow is capable of opening a new front while still battling Kyiv.”

Not everyone publicly agrees that Russia would attack NATO, though. Last year saw John Foreman, the former British defense attaché in Moscow, pen an article entitled “Russia will not attack NATO” in the Spectator.

His retired colleague, Britain’s current chief of the defense staff, Adm. Tony Radakin, has also stated that Russia will not attack NATO, according to an article in the Financial Times earlier this year. Public skeptics include not only U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘envoy for everything,’ Steve Witkoff,⁴ but also, predictably, Russia’s Vladimir Putin⁵ and his press secretary Dmitry Peskov. The problem with the Kremlin’s assurances that NATO will not be a target for a Russian military attack, however, is that the Russian leadership said the same thing about Ukraine before Feb. 24, 2022. In fact, just days before the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly denied, during a meeting with his U.K. counterpart, that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine. 

No matter what assurances Russian leaders might offer about not invading NATO countries, it is the job of the military-political leadership of these countries to prepare for the worst-case scenario, even if it seems unlikely. Such preparations are costly, compelling the leaders of these countries to divert funds from, among other things, social programs, or to increase taxes, which would require the support of the general public. The repeated public warnings of a Russian attack on NATO are clearly meant to build such support. 

Table 1: Estimates by Western officials and experts of when Putin’s Russia could acquire the capability to attack a Western neighbor, as well as under what conditions it would do so.

Footnotes:

1. This is an update of “Will Russia Attack NATO and, If So, When,” Russia Matters, 02.23.24.
2. Some believe Russia is already well on its way to generating such offensive capabilities. “Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated. In fact, the Russian army, which has borne the brunt of combat, is today larger than it was at the beginning of the war—despite suffering an estimated 790,000 casualties,” according to SACEUR Christopher Cavoli’s recent estimate.
3. Such a limited operation would “begin with a limited incursion into NATO territory at a perceived weak point—for example, in one or more of the Baltic states,” according to Fabian Hoffman’s FP commentary on what a Russia-NATO war could look like. “After the initial attack, Russia might declare that any attempt to retake the occupied area would trigger nuclear escalation,” Hoffman warns.
4. Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s envoy for peace talks with Russia, when asked whether Russia intended to “march across Europe,” responded simply: “100% not,” according to a May 8, 2025, report by The Economist.
5. Back in 2015, Putin said that “[O]nly an insane person and only in a dream can [one] imagine that Russia would suddenly attack NATO.” That said, Putin regularly adds disclaimers, such as in his September 2024 warning that Russia would be “at war” with the United States and its allies if they lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range Western weapons.

Simon Saradzhyan is the founding director of Russia Matters. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. Photo by AP Photo/Sergei Grits.