Machines at the Brink: “Synthetic Deterrence” and “Synthetic Foresight” in AI-Enabled Nuclear Crises

How might Generative AI reshape decision-making in future nuclear crises? Drawing on his forthcoming book Machines at the Brink, Jim Johnson examines how GenAI may transform the informational foundations of deterrence, crisis signaling, and strategic forecasting. Introducing the concepts of Synthetic Deterrence and Synthetic Foresight, the talk explores how AI-generated interpretations, simulations, and forecasts may increasingly shape perceptions of risk, credibility, intent, and escalation, with important implications for strategic stability and crisis management.