Strategic Morality: How Global Publics Accept Both Nuclear Deterrence and Disarmament

With Stephen Hertzog

(paper co-authored with J. Luis Rodriguez, George Mason University; and Lauren Sukin, London School of Economics and Political Science)

Backers of nuclear deterrence are thought to use strategic logic while nuclear disarmament advocates are believed to embrace moral reasoning. Yet, policymakers and diverse publics may hold both—ostensibly contradictory—preferences. Recent studies find that publics in Western, democratic countries support the nuclear strikes underpinning deterrence policy. But other scholarship indicates that these same publics want to abolish nuclear arsenals. A lack of comparative analyses across the Global North and the Global South limits the generalizability of these claims. Does a strategy–morality chasm really reflect global public views? What explains a multitude of inconsistent scholarly results? We theorize that publics exercise “strategic morality” regarding nuclear politics and that nuclear deterrence and disarmament are not necessarily incompatible tools for reducing nuclear dangers. If individuals’ first-order preferences seem to be unachievable, they may support seemingly opposite policy options. We test our theory with a survey in 24 countries on 6 continents (N=27,250). Unlike isolated studies of these phenomena, our analysis confirms that publics do not subscribe to a deterrence–disarmament binary and regularly support both policies.

Stephen Herzog is Professor of the Practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). He is Academic Co-Chair of the Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group, an initiative of the MacArthur Foundation and Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom. Prior to joining CNS, Dr. Herzog was a Senior Researcher in Nuclear Arms Control at ETH Zurich, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. He has also been a Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Before completing his Ph.D. in Political Science at Yale University, Dr. Herzog worked at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration and the Federation of American Scientists. He has worked, researched, and traveled in over 100 countries. His research is published in Contemporary Security Policy, Energy Research & Social Science, International Security, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, The Journal of Politics, the Naval War College Review, The Nonproliferation Review, and Survival. His public affairs commentary has been featured in outlets including Arms Control Today, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Financial Times, Science, The National Interest, War on the Rocks, and The Washington Post.