Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world

Past Event
Seminar

Thinking Ahead: How Do U.S. Leaders Assess the Long-Term Costs of Military Intervention?

Open to the Public

Speaker: Aaron Rapport, Research Fellow, International Security Program

In this seminar, the speaker will lay out several explanations for why policymakers may underestimate the long-term costs and risks of military action, then test these explanations against the historical record of Operation Iraqi Freedom. By understanding under what circumstances different factors will have the most influence over policymakers' perceptions of risk, it is possible to craft decision-making procedures that mitigate against biases which can lead to the adoption of prohibitively costly courses of action.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

Date: Time: - Location: Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369
Soldiers of 5th Battalion, 20th Infantry Regiment, 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, prepare to enter a building in Baqouba, Iraq, Mar. 15, 2007. The regiment was moved to Diyala province to reinforce troops there to try to quell ongoing violence.

About

Speaker: Aaron Rapport, Research Fellow, International Security Program

The Bush Administration has been roundly criticized for failing to anticipate the likely long-term costs of their 2003 military intervention in Iraq. It would be incorrect to portray the poor strategic assessments made by top officials in the Iraq case as an historical anomaly. In this seminar, the speaker will lay out several explanations for why policymakers may underestimate the long-term costs and risks of military action, then test these explanations against the historical record of Operation Iraqi Freedom. By understanding under what circumstances different factors will have the most influence over policymakers' perceptions of risk, it is possible to craft decision-making procedures that mitigate against biases which can lead to the adoption of prohibitively costly courses of action.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.