Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world
A seminar with Matt Buehler, MEI Research Fellow and Assistant Professor, University of Tennessee. Part of the MEI Research Fellows Seminar Series.
A seminar with Matt Buehler, MEI Research Fellow and Assistant Professor, University of Tennessee. Part of the MEI Research Fellows Seminar Series.
Moderated by Tarek Masoud, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Affairs, HKS.
Prof. Buehler would like to recognize the contributions of Dr. Curtis Bell, One Earth Future Foundation, to this research project.
The dilemma of dual-use technologies is a critical topic in studies of nuclear security. This is especially true in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region that has experienced a “nuclear renaissance” since 2000 (Kamrava, 2014). Many MENA states have sought to build or acquire civilian nuclear technology. Yet, risks emerge that such civilian nuclear technology could be diverted to build a nuclear weapon, the so-called “dual-use” problem. Even after a state has pledged to reserve nuclear technology for civilian use, it is conceivable that it could face national security threats that motivate the weaponization of its technology. Little research has examined citizen support for decisions to weaponize nuclear technology. Under what conditions do citizens express support for the weaponization of peaceful, civilian nuclear technology? How much, in particular, might the cultural affinity of a rival state exacerbate or dampen citizen support nuclear weaponization and, ultimately, aggressive nuclear strategies? Addressing these questions, this project uses an original, nationally representative population-based survey experiment in Morocco of over 2000 citizens to explore attitudes toward the dual-use problem of nuclear technology. It tests whether a hypothetical threat from Iran, Israel, or another Arab state is more likely to raise public support for nuclear weaponization and aggressive nuclear strategies. Although Iran has become more aggressive in recent years, this study’s results indicate that Arab citizens continue to perceive Israel as the largest threat and strongest motivator for potential nuclear weaponization. Citizens are less likely to favor weaponization when faced with a hypothetical threat from an Arab state, however. These findings highlight how cultural considerations can affect threat perception and popular support for aggressive foreign policy.
