Addressing Russian and Chinese Cyber Threats: A Transatlantic Perspective on Threats to Ukraine and Beyond

In an interconnected world, cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and sophisticated. Building resilience against this asymmetric threat is critical for countries to protect their economies, critical infrastructure, and democratic institutions. However, cyberattacks do not respect borders, and no country can address this threat alone. The strength and longevity of the transatlantic partnership between the EU and the U.S. presents a unique opportunity to address this strategic threat through international cooperation. Through an analysis of cyberwarfare in the ongoing war in Ukraine, this paper proposes policy recommendations to enhance transatlantic coordination and cooperation against current and future adversaries in a new era of strategic competition. Ultimately, a stronger transatlantic partnership is critical for protecting international democratic norms, building resilience against cyber threats, and strengthening global security and stability.

This paper addresses and presents policy recommendations for two significant challenges:

• Challenge 1: Curtailing Russia’s ability to support war ambitions in Ukraine
• Challenge 2: Defending the transatlantic partners against the Chinese cyberwarfare threat

A Transatlantic Approach: This paper views these two challenges through the lens of the transatlantic partnership. As the geopolitical threat landscape has evolved in the 21st century, the transatlantic alliance is entering a new decisive era that could determine the future of global security and norms in cyberspace. The ongoing war in Ukraine has put significant pressure and elevated the importance of the transatlantic alliance to respond to Russia’s blatant violation of international norms and human rights abuses. It has become clear that the U.S. and EU leaders must continue to work together to address threats to global stability, including the proliferation of cyberattacks as part of Russia’s strategy in Ukraine, and China’s efforts to undermine international democratic norms and alliances. The new threats emerging from the increase in gray zone warfare from adversaries demonstrates how the relationship between the U.S. and the EU is even more essential for addressing threats that do not respect borders and have significant global implications.

Challenge 1: Curtailing Russia’s ability to support war ambitions in Ukraine

For decades, Russia has used cyberattacks to destabilize the global community. Since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, these attacks have grown in frequency, scale, and impact. As one prominent example, U.S. Intelligence findings attribute the cyber-enabled spreading of disinformation and state-sponsored interference in the 2016 Presidential Elections to Russia. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine and the potential role that cyberwarfare could play in advancing the Kremlin’s territorial ambitions, further analysis of destructive capability and deterrence best practices are required.

Challenge 2: Defending the transatlantic partners against the Chinese cyberwarfare threat

While Russia remains an immediate threat to stability and security in cyberspace, the U.S. Department of Defense has described China as the “pacing” and primary long-term strategic threat for the EU and U.S. This means “that China is the only country that can pose a systemic challenge to the United States [...] economically, technologically, politically and militarily.” Recognizing that Russia’s relative global power is declining in the medium- to long-term, understanding and leveraging best practices for transatlantic coordination from the ongoing war in Ukraine will be critical for addressing the strategic threat of Chinese cyber capabilities.