Assessing China’s Uranium Enrichment Capacity

Abstract

This paper will offer a significant new assessment of uranium enrichment capacity in China, based on satellite imagery, Chinese publications, and discussions with Chinese experts. It concludes that China has a lot more enrichment capacity now than we thought and even more on the way. China has enough enrichment capacity to meet its nuclear fuel requirements for power reactors for the coming decade and beyond. China will have excess enrichment capacity and will become a net exporter of commercial enrichment services. Eventually, in light of this surge in enrichment capacity, China should address international concerns about the proliferation implications of its development of centrifuge technology.

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