Belfer Iran Brief—Arak confusion and other news

Highlights

• Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif did not offer Iran’s assistance against ISIS in Iraq in exchange for sanctions elimination, as had been previously reported.

• In a blow to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, the Majlis dismissed his science minister.

• The Pentagon described Iran’s military posture as “defensive,” even as Iran bolsters its weapons stockpile near the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue  

• Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied that Foreign Minister Zarif had offered Iranian aid against ISIS in Iraq in exchange for elimination of sanctions. (Reuters, 8/22)
  • According to two Iranian news agencies, Zarif said, “If we agree to do something in Iraq, the other side of the negotiations should do something in return.” Comments were later published by Western news organizations. (AFP, 8/21)
  • In fact, Zarif was referencing Arak nuclear facility and not Iraq, Ministry said. Note: It is clear from review of videotaped interviewthat Zarif was not talking about Iraq. Iraq and Arak are pronounced and spelled differently in Farsi.

• IAEA chief Yukiya Amano visited Tehran to discuss Monday’s (8/25) deadline for Iran to disclose details of its previous nuclear activities. He said he “expect[s] that progress will be made.” Conversations reportedly focused on Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW) detonators. (Tasnim, 8/17; Reuters, 8/18)
  • After Amano’s visit, Ali Akbar Salehi, chief of the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran, said he hoped the IAEA would close the EBW issue: “Fortunately, my colleagues have answered all of the questions of interest.”
  • Subsequently, the IAEA confirmed that Iran is continuing to fulfill its obligations under interim agreement. (AP, 8/20)

• Abbas Araqchi, one of Iran’s nuclear negotiators and deputy foreign minister, said it would be “no catastrophe” if the P5+1 and Iran do not reach nuclear agreement. (Press TV, 8/21)
  • “The Geneva deal has provided an opportunity for us to reach a final deal; however, even if we don’t reach an agreement…no catastrophe will happen.”
  • Iranian nuclear negotiator Majid Takht-Ravanchi said separately: “We are entering with goodwill into further negotiations with the P5+1 group and we want to reach an agreement...but we are not willing to pay any price.” (AFP, 8/18)

• President Hassan Rouhani said limitations on Iran’s missile systems are “not negotiable at any level” and said Iran would not accept monitoring or restraints beyond IAEA rules. (AFP, 8/17)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Thirteen European and Asian companies “prepared” to invest $15 billion in development of Iranian natural gas infrastructure. (Tehran Times, 8/17)

Iranian domestic politics

• Members of Iran’s parliament voted to dismiss Iran’s science minister, who was criticized by hardliners for allowing teachers involved in 2009 election protests to return to universities. (UPI, 8/20)  Note: Before the vote, President Rouhani asked the Majlis to support Reza Faraji-Dana, the minister in question. Rouhani responded to the Majlis vote by appointing Faraji-Dana as a presidential adviser.

• The Majlis published 24 allegations of wrongdoing by former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and asked the judiciary to investigate. (Al-Monitor, 8/21)

US-Iran relations

• Iran is fielding additional weapons systems along the Strait of Hormuz but its fundamental military strategy is “defensive,” according to a Pentagon assessment provided to Congress. (Bloomberg, 8/21)

• Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian and his wife, Yeganeh Salehi, who were arrested in late July, are being held because of “security issues.” Two other journalists arrested at same time have been released. (AP, 8/18; Washington Post, 8/20)

• An Iranian man who U.S. accused of trying to illegally export centrifuge materials to Iran died in Filipino custody; he had been held there since an American grand jury indicted him in 2012. Iran called the death “suspicious.” (Fars, 8/20; U.S. Department of Justice, 2012)

Geopolitics and Iran

• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian criticized U.S. and British actions in Iraq, saying both countries are only concerned with their assets in Iraq, not fighting terrorism. Therefore, he said, Iran has no need to cooperate: “If they are determined in campaign against terrorism in Iraq, they should prove it in practice.” (Tehran Times, 8/20)

• Iran is “optimistic that a new climate will prevail” in relations with Saudi Arabia, according to Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Iranian media reported that Saudi’s FM said it’s “ready to improve” relations. (Iran MFA, 8/20; Tehran Times, 8/19)

Israel

• Israeli officials reiterated their opposition to Western governments working with Iran to halt the advance of ISIS. Comments came after British PM Cameron hinted at British willingness to cooperate with Iran against ISIS in an op-ed. (J Post, 8/19)

• According to the IDF, Iran launched an unprecedented cyber attack against Israeli civilian networks, though the attack did not cause significant damage. (Times of Israel, 8/17)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.