Belfer Iran Brief – Iran may ship uranium to Russia, and other news

Highlights:

• Yukiya Amano, Director General of the IAEA, said Iran has still failed to answer key questions about Possible Military Dimensions of its nuclear program.

• Iranian media is considering Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as likely candidate to become next chair of Assembly of Experts.

• More than 10,000 protestors celebrated the 35th anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Annual event was lower-key than in previous years, partly due to its coinciding with religious holiday of Ashura.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Nuclear talks will resume next month where they started, in Oman. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif and the European Union’s Catherine Ashton are slated to meet Nov. 9 and 10.  (State, 10/31)
  • Next round of P5+1 talks scheduled for 11/11. (Mehr News, 11/2)

• Iranian nuclear negotiators “tentatively agreed” to allow Russia to fabricate fuel rods from its stockpile of uranium for the Bushehr reactor. Iran denied the report. (New York Times, 11/4)

• Yukiya Amano, Director General of the IAEA, said Iran has still failed to answer key questions about Possible Military Dimensions of its nuclear program. (New York Times, 10/31)
  • However, Amano said lack of Iranian cooperation on this issue should not derail nuclear talks. (Al-Monitor, 10/31)

• When asked to put odds on a nuclear deal, Kerry said he told President Barack Obama, “I’m not going to express optimism, I’m going to express hope,” and said minimum acceptable breakout time for Iran is one year. (State, 10/30)
  • Kerry: “We’ve set a very clear standard. There are four present pathways to a bomb for Iran – the hidden so-called secret facility in a mountain called Fordow, the open Natanz enrichment facility, the plutonium heavy-water reactor called Arak, and then, of course, covert activities. We’ve pledged that our goal is to shut off each pathway sufficient that we know we have a breakout time of a minimum of a year that gives us the opportunity to respond if they were to try to do that.”

• Iranian President Hassan Rouhani:  “If [Iran's] negotiating partners also show the necessary political resolve, it will be possible to reach a comprehensive [nuclear] agreement within a month.” (Press TV, 10/27)
  • Ali Khorram, aide to Zarif: “At present Iran and the Group 5+1 know all the points of difference and they just need to make a decision, and this does not need any further negotiations.” (Fars News, 10/29)

• An Iranian hardliner accused the government of finalizing a nuclear agreement in violation of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s red lines. (AFP, 10/28)
  • Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied report and threatened to prosecute the hardliner: “So far, no agreement has been reached on any issue and the only agreement is about the name and title of the final agreement, which is called the ‘Comprehensive Joint Plan of Action.’” (Press TV, 10/28)

• The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran announced it recently thwarted a sabotage attempt against heavy water storage tanks. (Trend, 10/30)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Iran’s oil revenues plunged 30 percent following recent drop in crude oil prices and falling demand in China, Iran’s biggest oil purchaser. (Bloomberg, 10/30) Note: For more detail about Iran’s oil exports under the Joint Plan of Action, see “Iranian oil exports under the Joint Plan of Action: A report card.”
  • Popular subsidies may be first to go as government prepares for deficit. (New York Times, 10/29)

• Iran’s inflation rate fell to 19.4 percent. (Tehran Times, 10/29)

• IMF predicts Iran’s economy will grow 2.2 percent next year. (Iran Primer, 10/30)
  • In its Ease of Doing Business tabulation, World Bank ranked Iran as 130 out of 189. Iran moved up two spots since last year. (World Bank, 10/29)

• Iran’s Mahan Air will resume flights between Tehran and Munich, Germany. (Fars News, 10/29)

• Iran would need five years, following sanctions suspension, to begin exporting natural gas to EU. (Reuters, 10/29)

Iranian domestic politics

• More than 10,000 protestors celebrated the 35th anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran. The annual event was lower-key than in previous years, partly due to its coinciding with religious holiday of Ashura. (AFP, 11/4)
  • Ali Khorram, adviser to Zarif, said Iran should work to “resolve” the “old wound” of the 1979 hostage crisis. (Al-Monitor, 11/3)
  • The U.S. is still the “number one enemy” of Iran and is “still the Great Satan,” the IRGC reminded citizens in a statement. (Fars News, 11/1)

• Majles members rejected Rouhani’s nominee for minister of science, research and technology by vote of 160-79. Conservative lawmakers alleged that the nominee, Mahmoud Nili Ahmadabadi, violated Islamic principles when he held a leadership position at Tehran University and did not condemn 2009 election protests. (AP, 10/29; AFP, 10/29) Note: In August, parliamentarians sacked Reza Faraji Dana, who held the minister position, for allowing participants in 2009 protests to return to universities. 

• Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, deputy speaker of Majles, said former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is attempting to return to political life. In a press conference, Bahonar said: “Return to political currents will depend on Mr. Ahmadinejad’s position and whether he will admit his previous mistakes or not, and (whether he will) make efforts for compensation.” (Tehran Times, 10/27)

• Iranian media is considering Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as likely candidate to become the next chair of Assembly of Experts. Shahroudi, who some speculate could be next Supreme Leader, is deputy head of Assembly and has been in charge following illness and death of Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani. (Tehran Times, 10/27; Al-Monitor, 10/27)

• About 20 percent of marriages in Iran lead to divorce, according to new statistics. (Reuters, 10/22)

• UN’s special rapporteur on human rights in Iran issued a lengthy report critical of oppression of Iranian women and of the jump in the number of executions. The rapporteur was promptly banned from entering Iran, which rejected the report as politically motivated. (Situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran; New York Times, 10/27)

• Police arrested ten suspects in acid attacks on women in Isfahan. Authorities also detained four ISNA journalists, two of whom remain in custody, for reporting on attacks. Iranian justice official blamed attacks on “foreign agents.” (Tehran Times, 10/28; Al-Monitor, 10/28; The Guardian, 10/28)
  • Ayatollah Naser Makaram Shirazi: “The acid attacks in Esfahan are a game and a conspiracy.” (Al-Monitor, 10/30)

US-Iran relations

• On the 100^th day of his detainment, family of Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian called again for his release. Rezaian has been held in Evin Prison without charge. (New York Times, 10/31)
  • Mohammed Javad Larijani, head of Iran’s High Council for Human Rights, hinted that Rezaian could be released. Larijani, who is also brother of speaker of Majles, said he hoped charges would be dropped. (New York Times, 10/31)

Geopolitics and Iran

• Turkish Ambassador Reza Hakan Tekin held meetings with Zarif and Rouhani. Both sides pledged to increase economic cooperation. Meeting comes after weeks of bitter, public disagreements about how to fight ISIL. (Fars News, 10/27)
  • Tekin: “The Iranian president's insight and behavior has greatly influenced the direction of the two countries' relations, that have sometimes seen some ups and downs, and redirected these ties to the right path.”

• Majlis speaker Ali Larijani praised Hizballah for playing the most significant role fighting terrorism, compared with regional states. (Tehran Times, 10/25)

• A senior police commander sought to allay concerns of a threat to Iran’s eastern border, touting sophisticated surveillance equipment police have deployed. (Fars News, 10/26)
  • Against Sunni militants on its southeast border, Iran is using “nuanced blend of force, negotiation, and economic investment.” (Christian Science Monitor, 10/30)

Israel

• In infamous comments to Jeffrey Goldberg, an anonymous U.S. officials said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a “coward” on Iranian nuclear threat whose bluff has been called. (The Atlantic, 10/28)

• Israeli intelligence minister Yuval Steinitz reiterated that the agreement under discussion with Iran “won’t be a good agreement. We are doing our best to make sure it’s not a catastrophe.” (Jerusalem Post, 11/3)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.