Belfer Iran Brief – Iranian nuclear “violation,” and other news

Highlights:

• IAEA safeguards assessment reported that Iran has failed to provide details about Possible Military Dimensions of its nuclear program, information it agreed to release in August.

• The European Union’s Catherine Ashton, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif held two days of talks in Muscat, Oman, that yielded little public progress.

• GOP victories in midterm elections raise possibility House and Senate will try to scuttle Iran talks.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran “has been intermittently feeding natural” uranium hexafluoride into its IR-5 centrifuge, an action that may have violated the Joint Plan of Action. Subsequent to the report, the U.S. announced that Iran agreed to stop feeding the centrifuge with uranium. (Reuters, 11/10)
  • Institute for Science and International Security reported that Iran may have violated JPOA by feeding uranium into the advanced centrifuge. The Arms Control Association disagreed, stating that there was no violation because “no enriched uranium is being withdrawn from the machine.”
  • Iran rejected the criticism. Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: “By doing so (injection), Iran has breached neither the Safeguards Agreement nor the Joint Plan of Action reached in Geneva last year.” (Press TV, 11/9)
  • Jen Psaki, U.S. State Department spokeswoman, said that Iran feeding the IR-5 with uranium hexafluoride was “a violation of what the IAEA requirements were” but declined to say whether it was a violation of the JPOA.
    • “We raised that issue with Iran as soon as the IAEA reported it, and it was resolved immediately. The Iranians have confirmed that they will not continue that activity as cited in the IAEA report, so it’s been resolved.” (State, 11/10)

• IAEA safeguards assessment reported that Iran has failed to provide details about Possible Military Dimensions of its nuclear program, information it agreed to release in August. (IAEA via ISIS, 11/7)
  • IAEA met with Iranian representatives on 10/7 and 11/2 and made no substantive progress. No more meetings scheduled before 11/24 deadline.

• Obama wrote Khamenei letter in mid-October explaining that they have “shared interest in fighting” ISIL, according to press, but stressed that “cooperation on Islamic State was largely contingent on Iran reaching a comprehensive agreement with global powers on the future of Tehran’s nuclear program by a Nov. 24 diplomatic deadline.” (Wall Street Journal, 11/6)
  • Letter was at least fourth sent by Obama to Khamenei. Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE were not told of correspondence, though Israel later said that it learned of the letter’s existence before news reports.
  • Obama press conference: “We have presented to them a framework that would allow them to meet their peaceful energy needs.  And if, in fact, what their leadership says, that they don’t want to develop a nuclear a weapon -- if that is, in fact, true, then they’ve got an avenue here to provide that assurance to the world community.” (White House, 11/5)

• European Union’s Catherine Ashton, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif held two days of talks in Muscat, Oman, that yielded little public progress. (Reuters, 11/10)
  • Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to Khamenei, was rumored to be attending the dialogue in Oman. After reports went public, Iran quickly denied that Velayati would travel there. (Al-Monitor, 11/8; Fars News, 11/9)

• In Sunday interview, President Obama said “there’s still a big gap” between Iran and the West. (Face the Nation, 11/9)

• GOP victories in midterm elections raise possibility House and Senate will try to scuttle Iran deal.
  • Speaker of the House John Boehner: “Listen, I don’t trust the Iranians… I would hope that the negotiations that are under way are serious negotiations, but I have my doubts.” (Financial Times, 11/6)
  • Senator Mark Kirk: “The best way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is to quickly pass the bipartisan Menendez-Kirk legislation—not to give the Iranians more time to build a bomb.” (Wall Street Journal, 11/6)

• U.S. negotiators reportedly agreed to allow Iran to keep 6,000 centrifuges, Iranian government-approved website claimed. (Los Angeles Times, 11/4)
  • Americans negotiators offered Iran dedicated banking channel between two countries as carrot in nuclear talks. (Al-Monitor, 11/4)

• The Sunday Times reported that Iran may have up to 5,000 IR-2m centrifuges, more than five times its declared number. (Sunday Times, 11/9)

• Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, is slated to travel to Russia on 11/11 to sign deal for construction of two new nuclear power plants. Two 1,000 megawatt plants would be built near current facility in Bushehr. (AFP, 11/9)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Iran’s economic minister sought to downplay impact of plummeting oil prices: “We will face no budget deficit stemming from the oil price slump.” (Tehran Times, 11/4)

• Iran plans to double its output of natural gas by 2017. (Tehran Times, 11/4)

• Car manufacturing increased 71% over the last seven months. (Tehran Times, 11/9)

Iranian domestic politics

• Head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, is quietly gaining prominence as regional player. (Washington Post, 10/30)

US-Iran relations

• U.S. officials reportedly held secret talks with Iranians in Azerbaijan regarding the resumption of diplomatic ties between the countries, including opening a U.S. trade office in Iran. The U.S. denied the report. (Sunday Times, 11/10) 

• Twice in past two years, U.S. military sought to involve Iran in development projects in Afghanistan in pharmaceutical and mining sector. (Wall Street Journal, 11/4) Note: Efforts ultimately failed but underscore areas of pragmatic cooperation between U.S. and Iran.

• Iran’s military claimed that a replica it constructed of a U.S. drone successfully completed a test flight. The drone was modeled off of the U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel drone that crashed in Iran in 2011. (AFP, 11/10)

Geopolitics and Iran

• American leaders continued to assert that U.S. forces are not coordinating with Iranians in Iraq and Syria.
  • Obama: “We're not coordinating with Iran on ISIL. There's some de-conflicting in the sense that since they have some troops or militias they control in and around Baghdad, we let them know, don't mess with us, we're not here to mess with you.” (Face the Nation, 11/9)
  • Kerry: “No conversation, no agreement, no exchange, nothing, has created any kind of deal or agreement with respect to any of the events that are at stake in the Middle East…There is no linkage whatsoever of the nuclear discussions with any other issue, and I want to make that absolutely clear.” (Tehran Times, 11/9)

• Nuri Al-Maliki, Iraq’s former prime minister, visited Tehran and met with Khamenei, who applauded Al-Maliki for his role promoting “stability” and “independence” in Iraq. (Press TV, 11/10)
  • Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri: “Iran is ready to place all of its abilities at Iraq's disposal.” (AFP, 11/10)
  • Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani: “In Iraq, we assisted the government in a number of areas to enable it to defend itself against ISIL militants…We had a responsibility to help the Iraqi government stand up against this terrorist movement. We helped Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias alike.” (Press TV, 11/9)

• Quds Force commander Qassem Suleimani’s name has become “synonymous with the handful of victories attributed to Iraqi ground forces.” (AP, 11/5)
  • “Dozens of advisers from Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were on the front lines in Jurf al-Sakher [where ISIL was recently defeated]. They said the advisers provided weapons training to some 7,000 Iraqi troops and militia fighters and coordinated with military commanders ahead of the operation.”
  • Note: While at least one Hezbollah commander was killed in Iraq in July, current Hezbollah presence in Iraq is new development.

• Suleimani and Badr Brigade commander Hadi Al-Amiri prayed together in Tehran as part of Remembrance of Muharram Shia holiday. (Office of the Supreme Leader, 11/6)

• Some Iranian commentators speculate that proliferation of Suleimani’s photo is effort to distract from Iran’s failure to control regional events, including ouster of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and fall of Mosul to ISIL. (Financial Times, 11/7)

• Australia’s defense minister said he doesn’t “see a problem” in Australian special forces working alongside Quds Force operatives to battle ISIS. (Sydney Morning Herald, 10/27)

• An Iranian nuclear engineer was shot and killed near Damascus, Syria, according to a monitoring group. The engineer was traveling with four Syrian nuclear engineers, who were also killed. (Reuters, 11/10)

Israel

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized Khamenei’s recent tweets advocating for the destruction of Israel: “He’s publicly calling for the annihilation of Israel as he is negotiating a nuclear deal with the P5+1 countries.” (Times of Israel, 11/10)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.