Belfer Iran Brief – Khamenei rejects inspections of military sites or interview with scientists, Obama calls Khamenei anti-Semitic but not irrational, and other news

Highlights

• Khamenei rejected inspections of military sites or interviews with nuclear scientists: “No permission will be given to them for inspecting any of the military sites as well as for interviewing nuclear scientists and [scientists in] other sensitive disciplines and encroaching upon their privacy… I will not allow foreigners to come and speak with prominent and dear scientists and children of this nation and interrogate them.”

• Obama on Khamenei: “The fact that you are anti-Semitic, or racist, doesn’t preclude you from being interested in survival. It doesn’t preclude you from being rational about the need to keep your economy afloat; it doesn’t preclude you from making strategic decisions about how you stay in power.”

• Iran has cut support for Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, following the group’s refusal to support Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Khamenei rejected inspections of military sites or interviews with nuclear scientists: “No permission will be given to them for inspecting any of the military sites as well as for interviewing nuclear scientists and [scientists in] other sensitive disciplines and encroaching upon their privacy… I will not allow foreigners to come and speak with prominent and dear scientists and children of this nation and interrogate them.” (Office of the Supreme Leader, 5/20; Reuters, 5/20)
  • President Hassan Rouhani echoed the sentiment in a subsequent speech: “The Leader of the Islamic Revolution’s word is rule for the administration; and we will never sign a deal that would allow anybody to have access to the country’s scientific and military secrets.” (Press TV, 5/21)
  • Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi on inspections: “What the IAEA does is not an inspection, but a managed access for environmental sampling to check whether there is any radioactive substances there.” (Tasnim, 5/15)

• In the event of an Iranian violation of a nuclear deal, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said the current text allows Iran to wait for 24 days before complying with inspections. “What happens if Iran doesn't comply? How much time will we have to check? In the current text, it's 24 days, but in 24 days a lot of things can disappear,” he said. (Reuters, 5/20; AP, 5/20)

• President Barack Obama on Middle East proliferation:  “There has been no indication from the Saudis or any other GCC countries that they have an intention to pursue their own nuclear program… Their covert—presumably—pursuit of a nuclear program would greatly strain the relationship they’ve got with the United States.” (The Atlantic, 5/21)
  • On timetable for sanctions relief: “First of all they’re going to have to deliver on their obligations under any agreement, which would take a certain period of time. Then there are the mechanics of unwinding the existing restraints they have on getting that money, which takes a certain amount of time.”
  • On money for destabilizing activities: “In the discussion with the GCC countries, we pointed out that the biggest vulnerabilities that they have to Iran, and the most effective destabilizing activities of the IRGC and Quds Force are actually low-cost. They are not a threat to the region because of their hardware. Ballistic missiles are a concern. They have a missile program. We have to think about missile-defense systems and how those are integrated and coordinated. But the big problems we have are weapons going in to Hezbollah, or them sending agents into Yemen, or other low-tech asymmetric threats that they’re very effective at exploiting, which they’re already doing—they’ve been doing despite sanctions.”
  • On Hizballah: “Hezbollah has a certain number of fighters who are hardened and effective. If Iran has some additional resources, then perhaps they’re less strained in trying to make payroll when it comes to Hezbollah, but it’s not as if they can suddenly train up and successfully deploy 10 times the number of Hezbollah fighters that are currently in Syria. That’s not something that they have automatic capacity to do. The reason that Hezbollah is effective is because they’ve got a core group of hardened folks that they’ve developed over the last 20-30 years.”
    • “The issue though with respect to rockets in south Lebanon is not whether [Iran has] enough money to do so. They’ve shown a commitment to doing that even when their economy is in the tank.”
  • On Khamenei: “The fact that you are anti-Semitic, or racist, doesn’t preclude you from being interested in survival. It doesn’t preclude you from being rational about the need to keep your economy afloat; it doesn’t preclude you from making strategic decisions about how you stay in power; and so the fact that the supreme leader is anti-Semitic doesn’t mean that this overrides all of his other considerations.”

• Khamenei’s adviser Ali Akbar Velayati said in an interview that American negotiators have contradicted the American fact sheet and agreement made on fate of Fordow. He also criticized Corker bill and timeline of sanctions relief. (Khamenei.ir, 5/17)
  • “The Americans should not continue to employ their old method by issuing threats and trying to reach their goals with political hypocrisy. On the one hand, the American president says that if the Congress wants to do something, he will veto it and on the other hand, he gives his blessing to possible bills against the process of negotiations.”
  • “We are not at all sure whether the Agency is under the influence of 5+1 members or not and whether its judgments are fair or not. Therefore, lifting sanctions and limiting the peaceful nuclear activities of Iran should be done together and at the same time.”
  • Alaeddin Borujerdi, the head of the parliament’s influential National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, also raised Fordow as example of an American contradiction, without offering specifics: “Unfortunately, after the negotiations that took place in Lausanne, with regard to Fordow, the Americans reneged and stated that this figure that was presented at Lausanne was high, and have presented another demand.” (Al-Monitor, 5/18)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Rouhani’s Minister of Labor and Social Welfare said Iran can no longer afford Ahmadinejad-era cash handouts, arguing that “to continue this system is not defensible with the current situation of the country.” (AFP, 5/19)

Iranian domestic politics

• Mohsen Rezaei returned from retirement and was apparently re-awarded rank of Major General in the Revolutionary Guards. He had left the Guards and unsuccessfully ran for president. He appeared alongside Khamenei in full uniform this week. (AEI Iran Tracker, 5/22)                                            

US-Iran relations

• Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates criticized framework nuclear deal in interview on Face the Nation: “I don't think the alternative is war. One alternative is better deal. I think that you go back to the sanctions, I think you reinforce the sanctions, and you basically say, here are the additional things we need for this agreement to work and to be worthwhile, and an agreement that reassures our allies or at least doesn't scare them half to death.” (CBS, 5/17)
  • “The idea of being able to have these snapback sanctions, that sanctions could be re-imposed once lifted is very unrealistic. I think that the pursuit of the agreement is based on the President's hope that over a ten-year period with the sanctions being lifted that the Iranians will become a constructive stakeholder in the international community. That-- that as their economy begins to grow again, that-- that they will abandon their ideology, their theology, their revolutionary principles, their meddling in various parts of the region. And, frankly, I believe that's very unrealistic.”

Geopolitics and Iran

• Iran consented to international inspection of an aid ship headed for Yemen, ending a potential standoff. The aid ship is escorted by Iranian naval vessels. (Bloomberg, 5/20)
  • Four large Iranian cargo ships earlier this year transported goods from Iran to Houthi-controlled port in Yemen. According to a Financial Times investigation, “the ships changed their ensigns, turned off their tracking devices at key points during their voyages, registered false information in international shipping logs and met unidentified craft mid-ocean.” The ships’ contents were unknown. (Financial Times, 5/22)

• Iran has cut support for Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza Strip, following the group’s refusal to support Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. (Jerusalem Post, 5/21)

Israel

• American and Israeli defense officials have started informal discussions about an increase in American military aid upon signing of nuclear deal with Iran. New aid package could include as many as 50 F-35 fighters, additional Iron Dome batteries, Arrow 3 missile interception system, new precision-guided bombs and intelligence collection equipment. (Ha’aretz, 5/20; Times of Israel, 5/20)
  • Amos Harel, Ha’aretz: “There will be no official negotiation between Israel and the United States on compensation to Israel in the event of a deal (the current deadline for which is June 30), so that Israel cannot be perceived as having come to terms with the pact.”

• Israel said it notified the US of Iran’s purchase of Airbus aircraft – which violated sanctions – but transaction proceeded anyway. (Reuters, 5/19)
  • US subsequently imposed sanctions on two firms connected with the sale. (Reuters, 5/21; Wall Street Journal, 5/21)

• A Swiss court reportedly ordered Israel to pay Iran $1.1 billion in dispute over a Shah-era oil pipeline deal. Israel’s Finance Ministry said Israeli law prohibits “trading with the enemy.” (Ha’aretz, 5/20; AFP, 5/21)

• Khamenei’s military adviser, Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, said: “Iran, with the help of Hizballah and its friends, is capable of destroying Tel Aviv and Haifa in case of military aggression on the part of the Zionists,” with more than 80,000 rockets based in Lebanon. (AFP, 5/22)                      

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.