Belfer Iran Brief—Missed IAEA deadline and other news

Highlights

• IAEA report details failure by Iran to meet key deadline, while Iran responded that “complexity” of issues delayed its efforts.

• President Hassan Rouhani said “walls and filters” – meaning segregation and internet censorship – are not the answer to cultural challenges.

• BBC Persian reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei approved cooperation with the U.S. against ISIS, a claim that both U.S. and Iran quickly denied.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• The IAEA confirmed that Iran missed the 8/25 deadline for providing detailed information about the history of its nuclear program. Of five “practical measures” it agreed to complete, Iran only implemented one before the deadline. It implemented two shortly thereafter, but has yet to complete two additional requirements. IAEA is “analyzing the information” currently. (IAEA, 9/5)
  • Iran fully downblended or converted its stock of UF₆ of 20% enriched uranium.
  • IAEA observed, via satellite, activity at the Parchin site “that appears to show the removal/replacement or refurbishment” at location, which it said undermines future inspections.
  • Iran wrote to IAEA in August that “most of the issues” were “mere allegations and do not merit consideration.”
  • Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA Reza Najafi said the “complexity” of the issues precluded Iran from meeting the deadline. (Press TV, 9/6)

• Representatives of France, Britain and Germany will meet with Iranian officials on 9/11 in Vienna, in advance of formal P5+1 talks on 9/18 in New York. (Reuters, 9/4)
  • Iranian and U.S. officials held bilateral meetings on 9/4 and 9/5 in Geneva. (AFP, 9/4)
  • Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, one of Iran’s negotiators: "I believe we are still not in a position to judge whether or not we can reach a deal before the deadline of 11/24, but we are trying our best and are hopeful and optimistic."

• Araqchi rejected a report that Iran is willing to reduce its centrifuge count to 7,000. An Al-Monitor article cited an anonymous Iranian source as saying Iran would agree to such a reduction. (Tehran Times, 9/8)

• Iranian security services arrested a Ukrainian national for allegedly attempting to sabotage the Bushehr nuclear power plant. The “Ukrainian expert” was affiliated with Russian contractors working at the facility. (Fars News, 9/8)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Japan transferred $1 billion of frozen oil assets to Central Bank of Iran, in accordance with Joint Plan of Action. (Times of Israel, 9/4)

• German lender Commerzbank AG expected to pay $650 million to resolve U.S. investigations into sanctions violations involving Iran and other countries, while CitiGroup agreed to remit $217,000 following an investigation into sanctions violations. (Wall Street Journal, 9/3; Reuters 9/3)

Iranian domestic politics

• President Hassan Rouhani said that “walls and filters are not the answers” to cultural challenges, criticizing gender segregation in public places and internet blocking software. He also said government will “fear no one and no power in their fight against corruption” and endorsed “electronic government” solutions to combat graft. (Tehran Times, 9/8)

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, 75, underwent unannounced prostate surgery in a Tehran hospital. (AFP, 9/7)

• Iran’s Assembly of Experts held its 16^th summit in Tehran, and prominent reformist cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Mohammad Dastgheib boycotted the meeting to protest the 2010 crackdown at shrine in Shiraz. (Al-Monitor, 9/3)
  • Population decline and “cultural invasion by the enemies” were subjects of discussion. (Tehran Times, 9/4)

• Mehdi Chamran, conservative politician and Ahmadinejad ally, was elected president of Tehran’s city council. (AFP, 9/2)
  • With an eye toward 2016 parliamentary elections, hardliners are closing ranks in a high-profile corruption trial. (Financial Times, 9/2)

• The Iranian Navy said it successfully thwarted several attempts by Somali pirates to seize Iranian oil tankers and merchant vessels in Gulf of Aden last week. In the most recent case, the Navy said “12 boats made three attempts to hijack the Iranian oil tanker” but were thwarted by naval forces, according to state media. The incident took place in Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which connects Gulf of Aden to Red Sea near Yemen and Djibouti. (Press TV, 9/4; Fars News, 9/5)

US-Iran relations

• See “Geopolitics and Iran.”

Geopolitics and Iran

• Khamenei reportedly authorized Iranian military officials to cooperate with their American counterparts in fight against ISIS. BBC Farsi cited “informed sources in Iran,” though Khamenei’s office and U.S. officials denied the report. (BBC Farsi, 9/5; BBC News, 9/5; New York Times, 9/5)

• Yemeni President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi said that “Iran should be reasonable and logical in dealing with the Yemeni people,” as Shiite Huthi rebels, allegedly supported by Iran, intensified anti-government protests. (AFP, 9/6)

Israel

• An Israeli delegation, led by Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz, set to arrive in Washington this week to lobby U.S. officials regarding Iran talks. (Times of Israel, 9/3)
  • Steinitz to Israel Radio: “What Rouhani has done is concede on all kinds of secondary issues, partial concessions, but protected the project's core [i.e. uranium enrichment], which is what threatens us and the whole world… This means that in substance Iran's positions have remained as tough as before, and if there is no dramatic development in the coming month then either there will be no deal - or there will be a bad deal leaving Iran a nuclear threshold state, and this is of course something we are not willing to accept.”

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.