Belfer Iran Brief – Moderate-reformist coalition achieved major gains in Iranian elections and other news

Highlights

A coalition of moderates and reformers – backed by politicians as diverse as Hassan Rouhani, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ali Larijani and Mohammed Khatami – achieved major gains in both Majles and the Assembly of Experts. Both Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards endorsed the results.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Iran’s stock of heavy water briefly exceeded — by less than one metric ton — JCPOA-agreed limit of 130 metric tons. Iran rectified issue by exporting 20 metric tons of heavy water. (IAEA, 2/26)
  • US official: “Iran made no effort to hide anything it was doing from the IAEA. Because of the enhanced monitoring and verification provisions in the JCPOA, the IAEA immediately became aware of this issue and raised it with Iran, and Iran fixed it.” (Reuters, 2/26)
• IAEA confirmed that Iran submitted its “long-term enrichment and R&D enrichment plan” in January. (IAEA, 2/26)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• President Hassan Rouhani said Iran’s car industry must be “completely privatized” and called for establishing new foreign partnerships. “The government will never be a good manager in industry, including the car industry,” he said. (Tehran Times, 3/2; AP, 3/1)
• Australia formally lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. (Reuters, 3/1)
• Oil
  • Iran has proposed barter deals for oil sales — wherein it would “swap exports of crude oil for imports of refined fuel” — because of continued banking obstacles. (Bloomberg, 3/4)
  • Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said Iran increased its oil exports by 400,000 bpd to 1.75 million bpd last month. (AFP, 3/1; Reuters, 3/1)
  • Tanker firm Frontline said securing insurance for Iranian oil shipments will take another 2-3 months, given sanctions complexities. (Reuters, 3/1)
• Trade with West
  • Siemens signed deal with Iranian energy company Mapna for the construction of gas turbines. (Reuters, 3/2)
  • Iran’s Transportation Minister invited Boeing to begin talks on airplane sales. US Treasury Department gave Boeing permission for such talks last month. (AFP, 3/3;Bloomberg, 2/19; New York Times, 3/3)

Iranian domestic politics

• A coalition of moderates and reformers – backed by politicians as diverse as Hassan Rouhani, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ali Larijani and Mohammed Khatami – achieved major gains in both Majles and the Assembly of Experts. Both Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards endorsed the results.
  • In Majles, where conservatives hold a 2/3 majority, moderates/reformers reached parity with conservatives. The exact breakdown of the Majles will be unclear until runoff elections are held in April and the governing coalitions are formed. The highest number of women were elected to Majles in two decades.
  • In the Assembly of Experts, voters rejected both the hardline chairman of Assembly of Experts and the spiritual mentor of hardliners, setting up Rafsanjani to take command of Assembly.
  • National turnout was 62% –  exceeding analysts’ expectations – and turnout in Tehran was 50%, the highest in two decades.
• Majles: Moderates and reformers, under the banner of the “List of Hope,” secured about 95 seats in next Majles, from current 30. Conservatives lost 90 seats. Provisional breakdown is below; note that 69 seats will be decided in second-round voting. (AFP, 2/29; AP, 2/29;ISNA (Fa), 2/29; Reuters, 2/29; Financial Times, 2/28)

• In Tehran, “List of Hope” secured all 30 seats.
• Number of women elected is tied for all-time highest.

• Voter turnout exceeded 60% nationwide.

Assembly of Experts: Moderate/reformist candidates won about 60% of Assembly’s 88 seats. Previously, they held less than 25% of seats. (RFE/RL, 2/29; AP, 2/29; AP, 2/29;ISNA (Fa), 2/29)

• Voters rejected Assembly Chair Mohammad Yazdi and Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, considered pre-eminent “spiritual mentor” of hardline politicians. (Financial Times, 2/29)
• Ahmad Jannati, the Guardian Council Chair, barely retained his seat – he was lowest vote getter among those elected in Tehran, where he ran. (Fars News election results, 2/29)
• In Tehran, where 16 of 88 seats are selected, moderate/reformist “List of Hope” coalition won 15 seats.

• Election reactions:
  • Khamenei: “I thank God the Omniscient and the Almighty for helping the knowledgeable and determined people of Iran achieve victory in another great test. For the 36th time since the beginning of the Islamic Revolution, they showed their presence in a public election with firm willpower and with memorable enthusiasm and excitement.” (Khamenei.ir, 2/28)
  • Rouhani: “Now it is time that we open a new path by empathy and unity of the nation and government and rely on domestic power and using foreign opportunities to open a new chapter in national economic growth and efflorescence.” (President.ir, 2/27)
  • IRGC: “There is no doubt that the election winners will do their best to protect Iran's dignity, power and independence; resolve the main issues for society and the people; and defeat the global arrogance by their awareness and wisdom.” (Reuters, 2/28)
  • Sadeq Larijani (Chief Justice, brother of Ali Larijani): Accused reformists of working with “American and English media outlets” in campaigning. “Is this type of coordination with foreigners in order to push out these figures from the Assembly of Experts in the interests of the regime?” (Reuters, 2/28)

• On day before election, Ministry of Interior announced that 1,385 candidates dropped out of race, leaving 4,844 candidates. (AFP, 2/24)
• Guardian Council spokesman Nejatollah Ebrahimian criticized council’s vetting of candidates as neither “efficient or effective” and said information provided by intelligence agencies was “contradictory.” Ebrahimian attempted to resign from council in January, but his resignation was rejected by Jannati. (AEI CTP, 3/1)
  • Ebrahimian: “In twenty days you cannot review six thousand complaints of disqualified candidates based upon contradictory reports. The constitution requires that you give each individual an opportunity to present a statement and offer a defense… The review of candidates requires at least a year.”

US-Iran relations

• Secretary of State John Kerry urged Congress not to “rush” to renew Iran Sanctions Act and instead wait to evaluate Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal. (Reuters, 2/25; AP, 2/24)
• House passed H Res 148, calling for Iranian assistance in locating Robert Levinson. (H Res 148, 2/29; The Hill, 2/29)
• Navy investigators completed a review of the arrest of US sailors in January, and turned over the investigation to the commander of the US Fifth Fleet. According to leaked details of the investigation, the sailors involved had never traveled across Gulf in such small boats; encountered major mechanical problems before they left Kuwait; had no direct communication with the refueling vessel; and failed to navigate properly. The Navy’s regional commanders are also under investigation. (Foreign Policy, 3/1)
  • Foreign Policy: “The U.S. sailors were using a GPS device to navigate, but Farsi Island is so small that it did not appear on their screen when it was zoomed out to a wider view. As they drifted within sight of land, the Americans did not even know that it was Farsi Island, said the person familiar with the sailors’ account.”
  • Chief of Naval Operations John Richardson said the Iranian detention of American sailors was “not consistent with international law.” (The Hill, 3/1)
• Iranian authorities arrested the 80-year-old father of Siamak Namazi, the Iranian-American businessman detained in Iran since October. His father is also a dual citizen. (Reuters, 2/27;CBS, 2/24)
• The CEO of a Delaware-based metallurgy company was charged with exporting cobalt-nickel metallic powder to Iran, in violation of US sanctions. (Wall Street Journal, 3/1)
• The FBI arrested a Canadian man accused of conspiring to send pressure transducers, thermal imagers, and other technology to Iran, in violation of trade sanctions. (AP, 2/23)

Geopolitics and Iran

• The Gulf Cooperation Council declared Hizballah a terrorist organization. The announcement followed Saudi Arabia’s decision to sever $3 billion of military aid to Lebanon. (Washington Post, 3/2; AFP, 2/19; New York Times, 3/2)
• Kerry testified that the IRGC has withdrawn a “significant number of troops” from Syria. (AFP, 2/25)
• The Swiss president visited Iran and agreed to a “road map” to improve bilateral relations. (Reuters, 2/27; Tasnim, 2/27)
• Commander of the Iranian Army’s ground forces, Ahmead Reza Pourdastan, said Iran’s regular army “is actively confronting the enemy outside our borders and is also performing an advisory mission in Syria.” (AEI CTP, 3/3)

Israel

• Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon pledged to directly provide $7,000 to families of Palestinian terrorists killed by Israel, and $30,000 to families whose homes were destroyed. The Palestinian Authority objected, saying any funds must go through the PA’s Martyrs and Prisoners Foundation. (AFP, 2/28; AP, 2/25)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.