Belfer Iran Brief—Nuclear talks resume in New York and other news

Published: Sep. 23, 2014

Highlights:

Nuclear talks resumed in New York and Iran President Hassan Rouhani will deliver a speech to the U.N. General Assembly this week.

Iranian officials are reportedly trying to link nuclear talks with assistance against ISIS, drawing U.S. and Israeli concern.

In a new survey, 94% of Iranians said a nuclear energy program is either somewhat or very necessary for the country.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

Negotiations between Iran and P5+1 resumed on Friday in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. Talks will continue throughout this week. (AP, 9/19)
- Iranian President Hassan Rouhani slated to hold public event on Wednesday at New America Foundation. He is scheduled to speak to UNGA on Thursday.
- Rouhani and President Barack Obama are not scheduled to meet, though a senior U.S. official said in a background briefing that Obama is “open to such a meeting.” (State, 9/18)
- Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif met on Sunday in New York. (AP, 9/21)

With less than two months before the Nov. 24 deadline, both sides say they remain far from a deal. But diplomats floated several proposals in recent days, including a plan to disconnect Iran’s centrifuges. (Also see “Geopolitics and Iran”)
- One proposal involves physically disconnecting Iran’s 19,000 centrifuges from the source of Uranium. (New York Times, 9/19) Iran rejected the idea as “media ballyhoo to ruin the atmosphere of the negotiations.” (Fars News, 9/22)
- Zarif: “Provided that everyone wants to reach a solution, that everybody wants to stick to the agreement that we had in Geneva in November of last year, we can, in fact, reach an agreement but it’s going to require a lot of work, a lot of hard decisions.” (Press TV, 9/17)
  - Zarif: U.S. is “infatuated” and “obsessed” with sanctions. “Sanctions have produced, just in normal calculus, 18,800 centrifuges.” (Press TV, 9/19)
- Wendy Sherman, lead U.S. negotiator: “We remain far apart on other core issues, including the size and scope of Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity. I fully expect in the days ahead that Iran will try to convince the world that on this pivotal matter, the status quo – or its equivalent – should be acceptable. It is not.” (State, 9/16)
- Senior U.S. official: “Coming into New York, I think many of us were not very optimistic. But clearly, over meetings over the last two days both with Iran and with my P5+1 and EU colleagues, it is clear that everyone has come here to go to work.” (State, 9/18)
- E.U. statement: "The EU is disappointed with the very limited progress on [Possible Military Dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program]…It is essential and urgent that Iran cooperates fully and in a timely manner with the agency regarding all relevant issues.” (Reuters, 9/18)
- German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier: "There is no more room for Iran to play for time…We are willing to offer Iran a fair deal. However, for that to happen, Iran will need to move on the core issues." (Reuters, 9/19)

Iran Turkey — September 23, 2014 - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during a meeting in New York City. Erdogan and Rouhani are in New York to attend the UN General Assembly. (Kayhan Ozer/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

In a confidential monthly report, IAEA confirmed that Iran has met its commitments under the Joint Plan of Action regarding enrichment. (Reuters, 9/19)
- Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA criticized the agency for reporting that Iran missed a transparency deadline. Reza Najafi said it is “inaccurate” to discuss Iran’s “so-called missing deadline.” (Tehran Times, 9/20) Note: IAEA reported that Iran missed an August deadline for fulfilling transparency measures. See Iran Matters, 9/8.
- Chief of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, said on state television that “the number of inspections or the volume of inspections in Iran has been enormous.” His interview accompanied video reportedly showing IAEA cameras and centrifuges in the Natanz facility. (Press TV, 9/22)

Catherine Ashton will continue her role in the P5+1 talks even after she is replaced as EU foreign policy chief. (Times of Israel, 9/16)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

Rouhani issued new banking regulations designed to increase investment in industry and force banks to reduce investment in land and construction. (FT, 9/8)

National Iranian Gas Company plans to increase its natural gas exports to 10 billion cubic meters/year. (Press TV, 9/21)

The EU Court of Justice rejected an EU sanction against Iran’s central bank, saying the banking freeze relied on information “so vague and lacking in detail that the only possible response [for Iran] was in the form of a general denial.” (FT, 9/18) Note: The central bank is under additional layers of sanctions, so practical implications are limited.

Iranian domestic politics

Just before boarding flight to New York, Rouhani told journalists that Iran’s government and people are united on nuclear issues. “No different voices are being heard from Iran's leadership and its nation about the country's peaceful nuclear program. They say ‘Yes’ to peaceful nuclear activities and ‘No’ to nuclear weapons.” (IRNA, 9/22)
- His sentiment was, in large part, confirmed by a new survey of the Iranian public, conducted by University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies and the University of Tehran:
  - Re: nuclear enrichment: 94% said nuclear energy program is either somewhat or very necessary. 69% believed Iran’s sole objective is energy production.
  - Re: nuclear fatwa: 71% were familiar with Ayatollah Khamenei’s nuclear fatwa; 57% were familiar with Iran’s nuclear treaty obligations.
  - Re: economy: 85% said sanctions had great or some negative impact on economy. 91% said sanctions had negative impact on ordinary people. But 68% said Rouhani has been successful in improving economic conditions.
  - Re: nuclear deal: 76% “willing to consider” international oversight but 70% said dismantling half of centrifuges is unacceptable. 74% doubted U.S. would lift sanctions pressure if nuclear deal is reached and 75% said nuclear concerns are just excuse for U.S. sanctions.
  - Re: ISIS: 48% approve Iran collaborating with U.S. against ISIS, while 46% disapprove.
  - Note: Survey conducted in July to representative probability-based sample of 1,037 Iranians. Margin of error was 3.1%.

Tehran is facing a widespread water shortage, and a vice president said the city’s reservoirs may only last several more days. (Press TV, 9/21) Summing up Iranian concerns, a large headline in reformist newspaper Aftab-e Yazd on Sunday blared, “How many more days will Tehran have water?”

Iran’s military on Monday marked the 34th anniversary of the start of the Iran-Iraq War with a parade in the capital. (Press TV, 9/22; Fars News, 9/22)

Iran’s judiciary ordered the government to block Viber, Whatsapp and Tango, popular cell phone messaging applications. (Press TV, 9/21)
- Eleven Iranians were arrested for allegedly spreading messages criticizing Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. (AFP, 9/22)

US-Iran relations

Zarif said Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian, detained in Iran since 7/22, “is facing interrogation in Iran for what he has done as an Iranian citizen.” Rezaian is joint U.S.-Iran citizen. (Guardian, 9/18)

See “Geopolitics and Iran” and “Diplomacy and nuclear issue.”

Geopolitics and Iran

Against U.S. entreaties, Iranian officials are aiming to link cooperation against ISIS with concessions during nuclear negotiations.
- Senior Iranian official: “Iran is a very influential country in the region and can help in the fight against the [ISIS] terrorists ... but it is a two-way street. You give something, you take something…[ISIS] is a threat to world security. Not our (nuclear) program, which is a peaceful program.” (Reuters, 9/21; Reuters 9/19)
- Rouhani: “If they want to use planes and if they want to use unmanned planes so that nobody is injured from the Americans, is it really possible to fight terrorism without any hardship, without any sacrifice? Is it possible to reach a big goal without that? In all regional and international issues, the victorious one is the one who is ready to do sacrifice.” (NBC News, 9/17)
- Iran continues to play “key role” in fight against ISIS forces, providing intelligence information, air support and ground forces. (LAT, 9/15)

Zarif and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal met in New York to discuss ISIS. It was the first meeting between the foreign ministers since Rouhani’s election.(AFP, 9/21)

Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran’s “support of the Syrian regime will continue.” (Bloomberg, 9/16)

North Korean foreign minister visited Tehran. (AFP, 9/16)

Two Chinese warships docked at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, the first such visit for the Chinese navy. Joint exercises between Iran and China will focus on marine rescue. (AP, 9/21; Press TV, 9/20)
- Iranian naval forces rescued Chinese container ship from pirates in Gulf of Aden. (IHS 360, 9/18)

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Western nations not to reduce pressure on Iran in exchange for help against ISIS: “[The Iranians] are fighting ISIS for their own interests. They are fighting over who will be the ruler of the Islamist world that they want to set over the entire world. It is as if Assad would say 'Go easy on my chemical weapons. Give me back my chemical weapons so that I can fight ISIS.' Both are absurd.” (Prime Minister’s Office, 9/21)
- Israel’s ambassador to U.S. Ron Dermer said nuclear Iran is “thousand times” greater threat than ISIS. (Times of Israel, 9/19)
- Israeli intelligence minister Yuval Steinitz: “We support the coalition against ISIS and terrorist organizations, but this should not come at the expense of a nuclear Iran.”
- Iranian threat is not number one foreign policy issue for Israeli public, according to new poll. Thirty-four percent said peace process should be top priority, while only 12 percent indicated nuclear issue. (Times of Israel, 9/18)