Belfer Iran Brief — Rouhani accuses hardliners of “sabotage” and other news

Highlights:

• President Hassan Rouhani accused hardliners of “sabotage of national interests” by trying to undermine nuclear negotiations under the guise of political criticism.

• Sen. Robert Menendez (D, N.J.) and other Senate Democrats agreed not to hold a floor vote on the Kirk-Menendez sanctions legislation until after March 24, and only then if the political framework agreement has not been reached.

• Iranian lawmakers are revisiting legislation to require the government to enrich uranium to a 60% level should the US Congress pass new nuclear sanctions.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• President Hassan Rouhani accused hardliners of “sabotage of national interests” by trying to undermine nuclear negotiations under the guise of political criticism. “Criticism is not about booing, it is not about slander and character assassination. Criticism is about showing a better and clearer way so that (we can) reach our goals faster.” (Reuters, 1/31; Tehran Times, 1/31; Office of the President, 1/31)
  • Rouhani: “The other side applauds their own, but here in our country, it is not clear what (the critics) are doing. It is as if they are cheering on the rival team.”
  • Rouhani said Iran is “very close” to a nuclear deal, adding that the “atmosphere currently dominating the world is not one of swordplay and the Islamic Republic of Iran wants to interact with others through logic and negotiation.” (Press TV, 1/25)

• Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif said it is “too difficult to imagine that this time can be extended again,” referencing an extension of talks beyond the June 30 deadline. “No one in the Islamic Republic seems to be ready for another extension in this round,” he added. (Fars News, 1/28; Trend News, 1/28)

• Zarif at Davos conference said that new US sanctions would “kill” nuclear negotiations that today have the “possibility, a very good probability, of reaching an agreement.” (AP, 1/23; AFP, 1/23)
  • Zarif told the Iranian press that there is “general agreement that Iran could have a nuclear enrichment program, no sites will be closed and sanctions should be lifted. But the discussions are continuing on the level of enrichment, on when Iran will begin industrial scale enrichment and how nuclear research and development will be done.” (AFP, 1/28)
  • Zarif met with US Secretary of State John Kerry on the sidelines of last month’s Davos conference. Iranian and European negotiators from Britain, France and Germany met in Istanbul last week. (Reuters, 1/23; European Union, 1/28)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Imports of Iranian crude oil by China, India, Japan and South Korea grew 19.8 percent in 2014. (Reuters, 1/30)

Iranian domestic politics

• Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, leader of Friday prayers in Tehran, said that if nuclear negotiations collapse and sanctions increase, Iranians should prepare to eat only one meal per day, noting that “starvation is not worse than losing a loved one.” He added that “we endure hardship in the path of resistance.” (Uskowi on Iran, 1/31; Radio Farda (Fa), 2/2)

• Iranian lawmakers are revisiting legislation to require the government to enrich uranium to 60% level should the US Congress pass new nuclear sanctions. This proposal by parliamentary hardliners is a routine response to American proposals. (Press TV, 1/27; Press TV, 1/12; AFP, 1/24)
  • Iranian lawmakers made the same threat in December 2013, following the Joint Plan of Action, the announcement of the Kirk-Menendez sanctions bill and additional US Treasury “designations” against Iranian entities. The 2013 proposal, supported by at least 200 MP’s, required: (1) enrichment of uranium to 60 percent; (2) completion of Natanz and Fordow; (3) “launch” of Arak reactor. (Fars News, 12/26/2013; Reuters, 12/25/2013; IRNA, 12/30/2013)
    • Iranian officials said the increased enrichment level is required for “submarines, “other facilities” and “ships.”
  • The current proposal, under the jurisdiction of the Majles National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, would require the government to enrich uranium to 60% level and utilize “new-generation centrifuges.” 205 MP’s support bill. (Tehran Times, 1/26;Kayhan (Fa), 1/17)

• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched a new “official website,” the latest sign that the former president may be contemplating a parliamentary run in next year’s Majles election. His slogan is “we will come soon.” (Tehran Times, 1/2; AFP, 2/1)

• Iran sent a new observation satellite into orbit, the fourth satellite it has launched and the first since 2012. (AFP 2/2; Tehran Times 2/2) 

US-Iran relations

• President Barack Obama on CNN: “For us to undermine diplomacy at this critical time for no good reason is a mistake and that what we need to do is to finish up this round of negotiations, put the pressure on Iran to say yes to what the international community is calling for.” (CNN, 1/28)

• Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2015 (S 269)
  • In a letter to Obama, Sen. Robert Menendez (D, N.J.) and other Senate Democrats agreed not to hold a floor vote on the legislation until after March 24, and only then if a political framework agreement has not been reached. (Office of Sen. Menendez, 1/27;The Hill, 1/27; Politico, 1/27; New York Times, 1/27)
  • US Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken on delay: “I think it recognizes that our negotiators could use the time and space effectively of not having legislation passed before the end of March…I think the commitment to do that is something that we would see very favorably and would answer a big part of the problem that we would have with legislation, even trigger legislation, if it passed now.” (Al-Monitor, 1/27)

• Sen. Bob Corker (R, Tenn.): “The last thing we need to do is pass a bill out of the U.S. Senate that is not veto proof.” (Corker, 1/27)

• The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill with several amendments by a vote of 18-to-4, sending it to the full Senate for consideration. (Senate Banking Committee, 1/29)

• Click here for Iran Matters’ analysis of the new Kirk-Menendez legislation.

• Revised Corker-Graham-McCain (Based on S.2650 from July 2014; New draft not released)
  • White House repeated veto threat. (Reuters, 1/29)

• Boxer-Paul (Announced January 2015; No draft)
  • No significant developments.

• Feinstein-Murphy Resolution
  • Sens. Diane Feinstein (D, Calif.) and Chris Murphy (D, Conn.) introduced a Senate resolution supporting negotiations with Iran and affirming that, should negotiations fail or should Iran violate agreement, support for imposition of sanctions would be “strong and widespread in the Senate.” (Senate Resolution, 1/26; Reuters, 1/26)
  • Feinstein: “Enacting new sanctions before the end of the negotiating period would gravely undermine our efforts to reach an agreement with Iran.” (Office of Sen. Feinstein, 1/26)

• A majority of Americans believe Obama has not been “tough enough” on Iran, according to new poll. (Fox News, 1/29)
  • 70% of respondents (87% of Republicans and 57% of Democrats) believe Obama has been “not tough enough” on Iran. That sentiment has remained steady throughout his presidency (2009: 69%; 2013: 68%).
  • 62% of respondents (76% of Republicans and 53% of Democrats) believe military force will be necessary to “stop Iran from working on nuclear weapons,” while 28% believe diplomacy and sanctions alone are sufficient.
  • Margin of error is +/- 3%.

Geopolitics and Iran

• IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said Hizballah’s rocket attack on Israeli troops in the Golan Heights — in which two IDF soldiers were killed — was the “minimum response” to Israel’s killing of an IRGC general last month. (Al-Monitor, 1/30)

• Iran appointed Gholamali Khoshroo as its new U.N. ambassador. The US rejected Iran’s previous nominee, Hamid Abutalebi, because of his role during 1979 hostage crisis. (Reuters, 1/28; AFP, 1/28)

• Amid a broader rapprochement between Hamas and Iran, the Palestinian militant group’s leadership said Hamas will work together with Iran “for the sake of Palestine” in order to “destroy the Israeli occupation.” (Jerusalem Post, 2/1)

Israel

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended his decision to address Congress regarding Iran’s nuclear program, saying he is “obliged to make every effort to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons which it will aim at the State of Israel.” A White House official said Netanyahu “spat in our face” by accepting the offer to speak to Congress on March 3, which was not coordinated with the White House or State Department. (AFP, 1/25; Reuters, 1/25; Ha’aretz, 1/23)

• Netanyahu in cabinet meeting: “In the coming weeks, the major powers are liable to reach a framework agreement with Iran, an agreement that is liable to leave Iran as a nuclear threshold state, which would endanger – first and foremost – the existence of the State of Israel.” (Jerusalem Post, 1/25)
  • In separate comments, he said that an agreement “leaves Iran the ability to produce the necessary material for a nuclear bomb within a few months and, afterwards, to produce dozens of nuclear bombs.” (Jerusalem Post, 1/26)

• Senior Israeli diplomat told reporters that a “crisis in talks” spawned by new sanctions could lead to collapse in negotiations and subsequent restart on better terms for the West. (Times of Israel, 1/26)
  • Unnamed Israeli officials said American negotiators had agreed to “80 percent” of the Iranian position and plan to allow Iran to retain 7,000 centrifuges. No further details were provided. (Jerusalem Post, 1/30)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.