Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world

Blog Post
from Iran Matters

Belfer Iran Brief – Sanctions debate intensifies and other news

Published:

Related Programs

Highlights:

  • US President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address declared his intention to veto new Iran sanctions, saying such legislation “will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails -- alienating America from its allies; making it harder to maintain sanctions; and ensuring that Iran starts up its nuclear program again.”
  • A major rift emerged between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, over impact of new Congressional sanctions, with Mossad chief Tamir Pardo apparently telling lawmakers that new legislation would throw “grenade” into negotiations. Mossad publicly disputed accuracy of comments.
  • An Israeli airstrike in Syria killed Revolutionary Guard General Mohammed Ali Allahdadi and five other Iranians, in addition to six Hizballah operatives. 

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

  • UK Prime Minister David Cameron said he contacted US senators and explained that new sanctions “could actually fracture” international sanctions coalition: “It's the opinion of the United Kingdom that further sanctions, or further threat of sanctions, at this point won't actually help.” (CBS, 1/16) Note: See “US-Iran relations” for additional reporting on sanctions legislation.
    • In Washington Post op-ed, foreign ministers from France, Britain, Germany and EU laid out the consequences of new sanctions against Iran. (Washington Post, 1/21)
      • Op-ed: “We want a comprehensive solution that both recognizes the Iranian people’s right to access peaceful nuclear energy and allows the international community to verify that Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon...Introducing new hurdles at this critical stage of the negotiations, including through additional nuclear-related sanctions legislation on Iran, would jeopardize our efforts at a critical juncture.”
  • Spokesman for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, said that “Americans have the will to reach an agreement with Iran” and defended Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif’s negotiation work, including controversial afternoon stroll in Geneva with US Secretary of State John Kerry. (Guardian, 1/21; Al-Monitor, 1/22; Bloomberg, 1/22)
  • Iran continued to abide by its commitments under the Joint Plan of Action, the IAEA reported. (AP, 1/20; Reuters, 1/19)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

  • Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, industry, mining and trade minister, said government should be truthful about role of sanctions on Iran’s economy. "Why should we say war has no effect or sanctions have no effect?...Our educated youths can tell if you're lying. Why should we teach young people to lie?” (AFP, 1/19)
  • Importers are complaining about months-long delays in access to hard currency, which the Financial Times said is “reminiscent of the chaotic situation before President Hassan Rouhani swept to power.” (Financial Times, 1/20)
  • China’s crude oil imports in 2014 increased 28 percent to 27.5 million tons. (Reuters, 1/23)
  • Iran will lose $11 billion in oil revenues over the seven month extension if oil prices stay at current levels, Treasury Department said. (Reuters, 1/21)
  • EU’s General Court struck down European sanctions against an Iranian bank and 40 shipping companies, though sanctions will remain in effect until EU decides whether to appeal decision. (Reuters, 1/22)

Iranian domestic politics

  • Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei launched a public relations campaign aimed at introducing young people in Europe and North America to Islam. In open letter — publicized under title “#Letter4U” — Khamenei said: “I don’t insist that you accept my reading or any other reading of Islam. What I want to say is: Don’t allow this dynamic and effective reality in today’s world to be introduced to you through resentments and prejudices.” (Office of the Supreme Leader, 1/21)
  • Iran’s judiciary sentenced former vice president to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to five years in prison and fine following anti-corruption investigation. (New York Times, 1/22; Reuters, 1/22)              
The latest from Belfer
See more
Iran nuclear negotiations Obama
President Obama delivering his State of the Union address on January 20, 2015. The President promised to veto new sanctions on Iran, stating they would hamper American efforts to negotiate restrictions on Iran's nuclear program. (The White House)

US-Iran relations

  • In a contentious hearing at Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken urged Congress to drop its plans to pass new Iran sanctions, while Democratic and Republican senators accused the White House of trying to curtail Congressional role in securing nuclear agreement. (Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 1/21; Washington Post, 1/21)
    • Blinken argued that no new sanctions legislation is needed: “Iran is well aware that a sword of Damocles hangs over its head. It needs no further motivation.”
    • Blinken reiterated the U.S. position that a 12 month minimum breakout time is necessary for comprehensive agreement: “Any agreement must give us confidence that should Iran choose to break its commitments, it would take at least one year to produce enough fissile material for a bomb.” Note: This statement was excluded from his prepared testimony submitted for record.(State Department, 1/21; SFRC, 1/21)
    • Sen. Robert Menendez (D, N.J.): “Over the past 18 months, we have been moving closer to [Iranian] positions on all key elements -- on the Arak reactor, on Fordow, on enrichment, and on Iran’s disclosure of the military dimensions of its nuclear program...It seems that we’re allowing Iran to shuffle the deck and deal the cards in this negotiation.”
  • US President Barack Obama in his State of the Union address declared his intention to veto new Iran sanctions, saying such legislation “will all but guarantee that diplomacy fails -- alienating America from its allies; making it harder to maintain sanctions; and ensuring that Iran starts up its nuclear program again.” (White House, 1/20)
    • White House may be succeeding in convincing Senate Democrats hawkish on Iran to vote against sanctions, preserving option of presidential veto. (Politico, 1/21; The Hill, 1/20)
      • Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D, Conn.), Sen. Mark Warner (D, Va.), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D, N.Y.), Sen. Bob Casey (D, Penn.), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D, Ohio), Sen. Chris Coons (D, Del.), Sen Ben Cardin (D, Md.) and Sen. Tim Kaine (D, Va.) all publicly indicated hesitancy to pursue additional sanctions. However, Sen. Mark Kirk (R, Ill.) said Blumenthal would be co-sponsoring his bill.
    • Senate Republicans who expressed caution include Sen. Rand Paul (R, Ky.) and Sen. Jeff Flake (R, Ariz.)
    • Minority Whip Sen. Dick Durbin (D, Ill.) said he predicted “at least 34 [senators] that would say, ‘this is premature, we should wait.’”
    • Majority Whip Sen. John Cornyn (R, Tx.) countered: “At some point, we’re going to get to the magic 67 and be able to override this veto.”
  • Revised Kirk-Menendez (Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2015)
    • Revised Kirk-Menendez bill is substantially weaker than 2013 iteration. Any deal signed with Iran is acceptable to 2015 bill; in contrast, 2013 bill outlined requirements for deal.
    • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, Ky.) reportedly promised Senate Republicans that Kirk-Menendez will be brought to floor vote. He did not offer similar assurance for Corker-Graham-McCain (below), though that too is likely. (Bloomberg, 1/22;Politico, 1/22)
    • Some Republicans suggested marrying Kirk-Menendez and Corker-Graham-McCain. (Politico, 1/22)
    • Senate Banking Committee will mark-up “Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2015” in executive session on 1/29. (Senate Banking Committee)
      • Committee will also hold rescheduled hearing on “Perspectives on the Strategic Necessity of Iran Sanctions” on 1/27. (Senate Banking Committee)
  • Revised Corker-Graham-McCain (Based on S.2650 from July 2014; New draft not released)
    • Sen. Bob Corker (R, Tenn.) at SFRC: “I have met no one who believes that us weighing in would do anything to destabilize these negotiations, and, as a matter of fact, many have said knowing that Congress has to approve the deal would be a great backstop for the administration to strengthen their hand.”
    • Blinken said this legislation “could actually undermine the credibility of the commitments we would make in the context of negotiations” because Congress could reject deal without giving Iran chance to demonstrate its commitment.
    • Blinken also objected to legislation’s preclusion of JPOA extension: “I would not want to prematurely rule out, in a sense arbitrarily, if we’re on the verge of completing the technical detials in June but still have I’s to dot and T’s to cross, we might want a little more time.”
  • Boxer-Paul (Announced January 2015; No draft)
    • In a new proposal, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D, Calif.) and Paul announced the drafting of legislation to ensure expedited consideration of new sanctions by Congress should Iran violate “any existing nuclear agreement,” Boxer said. (Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 1/21)
  • Hillary Clinton expressed opposition to new Iran sanctions: “If we're the reason -- through our Congress -- that in effect gives Iran and others the excuse not to continue the negotiations, that would be, in my view, a very serious strategic error.” (NBC News, 1/21)
    • Clinton: "Why do we want to be the catalyst for the collapse of negotiations until we really know whether there's something we can get out of them that will make the world safer [and] avoid an arms race in the Middle East?"
  • In Congressional testimony, former national security advisers Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft both stated their concern about new sanctions. (The Hill, 1/21; Senate Armed Services Committee, 1/21)
    • Brzezinski: “All of the parties negotiating, including our closest allies as well as the Russians and the Chinese, favor a continuation of the negotiations for reasons specific to their own interests. If the negotiations broke down the whole process would collapse. And then what would be the alternative? Should we then attack and bomb them and thereby make the war in the Middle East even more explosive?”
    • Scowcroft: “They will break the talks...I think we should see them out and not take steps which would destroy the negotiations.”

Geopolitics and Iran

  • Rouhani offered condolences to Saudi Arabia following death of King Abdallah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. (Fars News, 1/23)
    • Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Supreme National Security Council, said Iran seeks “straight, clear and continuous talks” with Saudi Arabia, even as Iran accuses Saudi Arabia of orchestrating dramatic drop in oil prices. Comments followed Zarif’s decision to postpone scheduled visit to Saudi Arabia. (Reuters, 1/20; Reuters, 1/18)
  • Argentina’s leadership conspired with Iran to cover up Hizballah’s involvement in the 1994 bombing of Jewish center in Buenos Aires, according to allegations presented by the lead prosecutor investigating bombing. Hours before he was slated to release evidence of these allegations, he was shot to death in his apartment. (New York Times, 1/21; Reuters, 1/22)
    • Prosecutor Alberto Nisman accused government of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of trying to shield Iran from criminal inquiries into the bombing, which killed 85 people, in exchange for Iranian oil.
  • The establishment of a British embassy in Tehran has stalled over Iranian demands to inspect British crates of secure communications equipment bound for the embassy and over visa processing issues. (Financial Times, 1/21)
  • In a visit to Tehran, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed a deal to increase military cooperation in areas of training, peacekeeping and counterterrorism. The Iranian defense minister noted that “Iran and Russia are able to confront the expansionist intervention and greed of the United States through cooperation, synergy and activating strategic potential capacities.” (AP, 1/20;AFP, 1/20)
    • Russian media hinted that the Kremlin may resume the sale of S-300 missile system to Iran, which it cancelled in 2010. (Reuters, 1/20)
  • The Yemeni president and prime minister quit as Iran-backed Houthi fighters seized control of capital Sana’a, creating a power vacuum in Yemen. (Al Jazeera, 1/23; New York Times, 1/24)

Israel

  • A major rift emerged between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, over impact of new Congressional sanctions, with Mossad chief Tamir Pardo apparently telling lawmakers that new legislation would throw “grenade” into negotiations. Mossad publicly disputed accuracy of comments. (Bloomberg, 1/22)
    • In comments to reporters, Kerry said Israeli intelligence believes that new sanctions would be akin to “throwing a grenade into the process,” judgment consistent with U.S. intelligence but diametrically opposed to Netanyahu’s viewpoint. (CBS, 1/21)
    • Mossad, in rare public comments, confirmed that chief Tamir Pardo used the “grenade” analogy in conversation with US lawmakers but “did not use this expression regarding the imposition of sanctions, which he believes to be the sticks necessary for reaching a good deal with Iran.” (Jerusalem Post, 1/22; Ha’aretz, 1/22)
    • Mossad statement: “Contrary to what has been reported, the Head of the Mossad did not say that he opposes imposing additional sanctions on Iran...the Head of the Mossad emphasized in the meeting that the exceptional effectiveness of the sanctions imposed on Iran in recent years are what brought Iran to the negotiating table.” (Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/22; Ha’aretz, 1/22)
  • Netanyahu will address a joint session of Congress on March 3 regarding Iran, following an invitation by House Speaker John Boehner (R, Ohio) that was not vetted through the State Department or White House. The White House announced that Obama will not meet with Netanyahu during his visit, citing its proximity to March 17 Israeli elections. (Jerusalem Post, 1/22; Fox News, 1/22;New York Times, 1/21; Bloomberg, 1/21)
  • An Israeli airstrike in Syria killed Revolutionary Guard General Mohammed Ali Allahdadi and five other Iranians, in addition to six Hizballah operatives. The group was traveling in a convoy on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights. (Daily Star, 1/19; Jerusalem Post, 1/19; BBC News, 1/19)
    • Dead also include: senior Iranian field commander Abu Ali Tabtabai; Hizballah field commander Mohammed Issa (Abu Issa); and Jihad Mughniyeh, son of former Hizballah military chief Imad Mughniyeh.
    • The Israeli military denied that the helicopter strike had intentionally targeted Hizballah and Iranian officers. An anonymous senior military source said they expected to kill “enemy field unit that was on its way to carry out an attack on us.” (Arutz Sheva, 1/20)
    • Iranian Revolutionary Guard Commander Ali Jafari said Israel should await “destructive thunderbolts” in retaliation. (AFP, 1/21)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

  • No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

  • No significant claims.