Belfer Iran Brief – Senate approves Iran bill, Iranian military denies inspection of bases, and other news

Highlights

• The Senate voted overwhelmingly in favor of the Corker-Menendez bill, which provides for Congressional review of an Iran deal, 98-1.

• 150 House Democrats signed a letter to President Obama expressing support for the negotiations. Of the signatories, 145 are voting members, meaning Democrats would be able to sustain a presidential veto if a resolution of disapproval is passed under Corker-Menendez.

• Representatives of Gulf States will meet with President Obama at the White House and Camp David this week to discuss American security assurances in the event of an Iran nuclear deal.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, chief of the Iranian general staff, outlined “red lines” for nuclear negotiators regarding sanctions removal and inspection of military facilities. (Fars News, 5/3)
  • Firouzabadi: “Iranian military officials are not allowed to let the foreigners go through the country's security-defense shield...In case the West insists on suspending and not terminating the sanctions, then the Islamic Republic of Iran should only undertake to fulfill all its agreements over restricting its nuclear operations – including its working centrifuges, enrichment grade, research and development of centrifuge machines and reactors, including the Arak reactor, and change in the application of Fordow enrichment center - merely in the form of suspension.”

• US Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power addressed the potential for Russia or China to veto “snapback” of sanctions: “We're going to do so in a manner that doesn't require Russian and Chinese support or a vote for snapback ... because we are in a different world in 2015 than we were when the sanctions architecture was put in place.” (Reuters, 5/6)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Defying international sanctions, Iran’s Mahan Air – which the United States believes ferries weapons and soldiers for the Quds Force – purchased nine Airbus planes for $300 million. Mahan apparently used an Iraqi airline as a front. (Financial Times, 5/11; Tasnim, 5/10)

Iranian domestic politics

• Riots erupted among Kurdish citizens in Mahabad following the unexplained death of a 25-year-old Kurdish woman. (New York Times, 5/7; Rudaw, 5/7)                                        

US-Iran relations

• The Senate voted overwhelmingly in favor of the Corker-Menendez bill, which provides for Congressional review of an Iran deal, 98-1. Sen. Tom Cotton (R, Ark.) was the only nay vote; Sen. Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.) was not present. Bill will now be considered by House. (Reuters, 5/7; New York Times, 5/7; Al-Monitor, 5/7)
  • The survived a last-minute attempt by Sen. Marco Rubio (R, Fl.) and Cotton to tack on so-called “poison-pill” amendments, forcing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, Ky.) to close discussion of the bill early. (Washington Post, 5/7)
  • The House Freedom Caucus will advocate addition of similar amendments to the House version, including requiring certification that: (1) Iran recognizes Israel as a Jewish state; (2) Iran has “dismantled” its ballistic missile program; and (3) Iran has “ceased all support and funding of terrorism.” (Politico, 5/8)

• 150 House Democrats signed a letter to President Obama expressing support for the negotiations. Of the signatories, 145 are voting members, meaning Democrats would be able to sustain a presidential veto if a resolution of disapproval is passed. (Washington Post, 5/7; Roll Call, 5/7)

• Nearly 70% of Americans do not believe Iran will fulfill its obligations under a nuclear deal, though 54 percent still approve of the deal, according to a new poll. Asked to choose between maintaining the US relationship with Israel and striking a nuclear deal with Iran, 6 in 10 Democrats chose the Iran deal while 7 in 10 Republicans sided with US-Israel relations. (AP-GfK Poll, 5/12)

Geopolitics and Iran

• Representatives of Gulf States will meet with President Obama at the White House and Camp David this week to discuss American security assurances in the event of an Iran nuclear deal. King Salman of Saudi Arabia declined Obama’s invitation, as did the leaders of Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. (White House, 5/11; New York Times, 5/11)
  • UAE Ambassador to US Youssef al Otaiba: “If you talk to most of the [Persian Gulf] countries, they will tell you that they are more concerned about Iran's behavior than they are about whether it's 5,000 or 7,000 centrifuges.” (Los Angeles Times, 5/9)

• Iran released the Maersk Tigris ship following a court order, and the US Navy stopped accompanying ships through the Strait of Hormuz. (AP, 5/7; Reuters, 5/7)

• India is proceeding over US objections to develop a port in Iran, in response to increased Chinese investment in Pakistan. (Reuters, 5/5)

Israel

• The Israeli military concluded that an attempted terrorist attack in Golan Heights last month was ordered directly by Iran and not via Hizballah. In the incident, Israeli soldiers killed four militants who attempted to place explosive device on the Syria-Israel border. (Ha’aretz, 5/6)