Belfer Iran Brief—Transfer of power in Iraq and other news

Highlights

• New Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi was reportedly chosen at a meeting in Tehran between members of his Dawa Party and the Iranian government, with the support of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

• According to Iran’s central bank, the Iranian economy shrank 1.9% between March 2013 and March 2014.

• Iran’s oil minister categorically denied reports that Iran and Russia have concluded an oil-for-goods deal.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described direct negotiations between Iran and the U.S. as “fruitless,” but declined to ban Iranian diplomats from engaging in bilateral discussions of nuclear issues. (AP, 8/13/14)

• IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano will travel to Tehran this weekend for meetings related to the agency’s investigation of Iran’s past nuclear activities. (Reuters, 8/15/14)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• A passenger plane, built in Iran based on an Ukranian design, crashed in Tehran, killing 39. (AP, 8/10/14) Note: Sanctions on the aviation sector have left the Iranian airliners with a weak safety record.

• According to Iran’s central bank, the Iranian economy shrank 1.9% between March 2013 and March 2014. (Tehran Times, 8/13/14)

• Iran imported over 34,000 cars between March 21 and July 22, a 138% increase over the same period last year. (Tehran Times, 8/13/14) Note: Sanctions on Iran’s automotive industry are suspended under the terms of the Joint Plan of Action.

• Iran’s oil minister categorically denied reports that Iran and Russia have concluded an oil-for-goods deal. (Fars, 8/12/14)

Iranian domestic politics

• Iranian Majlis passed a bill that would ban permanent forms of contraception. (Reuters, 8/11/14) Note: The bill is part of an effort to increase Iran’s birth rate, which has fallen to 1.6 children per woman.

• President Hassan Rouhani lashed out at domestic opponents of nuclear negotiations, calling them “cowards.” (Reuters, 8/11/14) Note: Rouhani later clarified that he was referring not to critics but to “saboteurs” of government policy, in an apparent effort to soften his remarks. (Tehran Times, 8/13/14)

• Iran’s oil minister charged that members of the Ahmedinejad administration funneled $2.7 billion of oil revenue to Babak Zanjani, a political ally. (Al-Monitor, 8/14/14)

US-Iran relations

• In an interview, former Secretary of State and likely future presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said that “there is no such thing as a right to enrich” and that demanding zero Iranian enrichment capability in negotiations is a “not unrealistic position.” (The Atlantic, 8/10/14)

Geopolitics and Iran

• The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a public statement of support for new Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. (Reuters, 8/12/14)

• al-Abadi was reportedly chosen at a meeting in Tehran between members of his Dawa Party and the Iranian government, with the support of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. (Al-Monitor, 8/14/14)

Israel

• No significant developments.

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims