The Coming Clash Over Iran

With the violence in Gaza and Israel subsiding at least for a while, U.S.-Israeli conversations will likely soon return to the much more significant issue of Iran.

The Obama administration and the Netanyahu government were largely on the same page during the Gaza crisis, and the two country’s leaders seemed to be able to set aside their mutual animosity and distrust, working together to defuse the crisis. But much greater turbulence in their relations can be expected by the middle of next year when the issues associated with Iran’s nuclear project will likely reach another crescendo.

Around that time, a number of important developments will converge. First, Iran will have made further progress with its nuclear program, reducing the time that would be required to convert its “nuclear weapon capability” into actual weapons. On current trajectories, by next summer, Iran could have enough 20 percent enriched uranium to reenrich into material for one bomb in three months. Since Israel will understandably feel more immediately threatened by such developments, its leaders will react more nervously than their American counterparts.

For the full text of this piece in The National Interest, see here.

Graham Allison is Director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Shai Feldman is Director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University.