Designing A Secure Iraq: A US Policy Prescription

The third Western attempt at regime construction in Iraq is now underway. Western plans to rebuild the Iraqi state will fail again if they ignore the real roots of Iraqi insecurity: its geopolitical weakness. The preoccupation with designing a new constitution ignores the historical evidence of the 1930s and 1950s that it is bound to fail. Surrounded by far larger powers such as Turkey and Iran, Iraq desperately needs long-term commitments of arms and allies. While de-garrisoning is a vital part of the regional peace puzzle, an insecure Iraq destabilises politics in Baghdad and fuels arms competitions. Thus the USA and UK must intercede on Iraq’s behalf and help to resolve the long-standing disputes over the unfair division of the Shatt al-Arab with Iran, and access to sea arrangements with Kuwait. If Iraq is permitted to drift away a decade after reconstruction, its regime will again fall.

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