Did Obama best Bibi's red line?

By his own metric that he famously set using a red marker and homemade bomb drawing at the UN, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should have welcomed the interim deal signed last week in Geneva—rather than deriding it as a “historic mistake.” If Iran fully implements the agreement, the country's entire stockpile of 20% enriched uranium—which Bibi singled out using his "red line"—will be eliminated by mid-2014.

At the UN in September 2012, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu famously drew on a homemade cartoon bomb a “red line” for Iran. He insisted that if Iran were to acquire 250 kg, or roughly one bomb’s worth, of 20% enriched uranium (medium-enriched uranium, or MEU), Israel will act. By enriching to 20%, Bibi correctly notes, Iran has completed roughly 90% of the work toward having enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb. 

As I argue in Haaretz, by his own metric, Bibi should have welcomed the interim deal signed last week—rather than deriding it as a “historic mistake.” Under the terms of the agreement, Iran will be required to eliminate its entire stockpile of MEU, by diluting or converting to oxide, within six months. As the chart below illustrates, the nearly 200 kg of 20% enriched uranium in gaseous form, about which Bibi is so concerned, will be reduced to zero.

By mid-2014, if implemented as agreed, Iran will only possess uranium enriched to 5% or less (low-enriched uranium, or LEU). As Bibi’s bomb also notes, enriching to LEU constitutes 70% of the work required to produce bomb-grade material—but 2/3 farther from a bombs’ worth of weapons-grade uranium than having material enriched to 20%. 

As the chart at the top of the page from my op-ed in Haaretz on Monday demonstrates, Barack’s black line bested Bibi’s red line.