The Future of Gas Infrastructures in Eurasia

Abstract

The IIASA-WEC study global energy perspectives emphasized trends toward cleaner, more flexible, and more convenient final energy forms, delivered chiefly by energy grids, and noted potential energy infrastructure deficiencies in Eurasia. We compare planned interregional gas pipelines and LNG terminals in Eurasia with the study's projected trade flows for 2020. We focus on the study's three high-growth scenarios and single middle course scenario. The comparison indicates that high gas consumption in a scenario need not imply high gas trade. For the former Soviet Union, a robust strategy across all six scenarios is to implement existing plans and proposals for expanding gas export capacity. For Eastern Europe, significant import capacity expansions beyond current plans and proposals are needed in all but the middle course scenario. Western European plans and proposals need to be increased only in two high gas consumption scenarios. Planned and proposed capacities for the Middle East (exports) and centrally planned Asia (imports) most closely match a high gas trade scenario, but are otherwise excessive. Paradoxically, for the Pacific OECD, more short-term import capacity is needed in scenarios with low gas consumption than in high-consumption scenarios. For Southeast Asia, proposed import capacities are significantly higher than scenario trade projections.