The Gold Medal for Foreign Policy Goes to Germany

Berlin's approach to the world is far better than its reputation.

If you were handing out Olympic medals for foreign policy over the past couple of decades, which major world power should get the gold? Some observers might say China, which has vastly expanded its economic and military power, increased its influence in key international institutions, and avoided the costly quagmires that the United States fell into repeatedly. But China has stumbled of late under Xi Jinping, and its increasingly heavy-handed approach at home and abroad has tarnished its image, alarmed its neighbors, and made others wary about its future intentions. An early medal favorite, China's recent performance deserves no better than a bronze and might not earn a spot on the medal stand at all.

What about Russia? Vladimir Putin has played a weak hand well over the past 20 years, but his handling of foreign policy hasn’t made Russia safer—if it has, why is he so worried about Ukraine? Nor has he left Russia better equipped to compete effectively in the decades ahead. Russia's leaders may crave recognition of their country as a great global power, but their governing model is of limited appeal, and other countries are going to shape the future more profoundly than Moscow is. Barring a rift between Beijing and Moscow (something the United States and others would be wise to encourage), Russia will be relegated mostly to a spoiler role as China's junior partner.

Despite many enduring advantages, neither the United States nor United Kingdom can be regarded as serious medal contenders either. The United States has stumbled under Democrats and Republicans alike and so has Britain under both Labour and Conservative governments. Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair's decision to blindly follow the George W. Bush administration into Iraq in 2003 was an obvious own goal, and the Tory-led decision to exit the European Union has left Britain poorer, less influential, and in the hands of politicians whose mendacity far outstrips their competence.

Who’s left? Well, if I were awarding the medals, I'd hand the gold to Germany. If the primary goal of any country's foreign policy is to increase its security and prosperity without doing too much damage to its expressed political values, then Germany's performance over the past several decades is undeniably impressive. The conditions that made this strategy possible are now disappearing, however, and the big question—as newly-elected Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrives in Washington to meet with President Joe Biden—is whether Germany can and will adjust.

Since reunification in the early 1990s, Berlin has managed to pull off a remarkable trifecta. First, it has remained a close security partner of the United States and is still able to remain a free rider on American protection. Germans continue to regard the United States as the first responder whenever trouble arises, and they work hard to make sure that Uncle Sam embraces that role. Moreover, Germany has managed to retain this privileged position despite having openly opposed the U.S. decision to invade Iraq in 2003 and successfully resisted repeated U.S. pleas to take on a fair share of collective defense. The Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations all tried to get Germany to boost its defense capabilities, but Berlin is still far short of the 2 percent of GDP defense spending target that NATO set eight years ago. Germany doesn’t spend its defense budget very efficiently, either, so it doesn't get as much usable capability as it should. But these shortcomings have yet to have significant negative consequences. As America's vigorous response to the current crisis in Ukraine suggests, Germany can still count on the United States to come to its aid whenever the wolf is at the door....