The Importance of Iran

WASHINGTON -- The American-European-led international diplomatic minuet with Iran is the most interesting and significant political dynamic in the world today. What happens on the Iran issue will determine power relations for years to come, far beyond Iran's immediate neighborhood. Many critical issues are captured in the Iranian nuclear question, including global energy flows; the credibility and impact of the UN Security Council; the limits of economic and political sanctions; the capacity of determined regional powers to defy greater global powers; the interplay between Israeli, Western and global interests; the coherence of political Europe; and, the spirit and letter of international law, conventions and treaties.

Beyond political posturing in Iran, the United States, Israel and Europe, three core issues are at stake here: Iran's right to develop nuclear technology for verifiably peaceful purposes; Israeli concerns that an Iranian nuclear bomb would be an existential threat, which Israel will never allow to happen; and, Western fears of Iran's military power, nuclear capabilities, and radicalizing political influence around the Middle East.

The current situation sees the US-led Security Council five permanent members plus Germany ("5+1") incrementally raising their enticing offers to Iran while simultaneously increasing sanctions on Iran for not heeding the call to freeze its uranium enrichment activities, which are vital for producing nuclear power and/or weapons. 

From the last two months I have spent in Washington, and discussions with former and current American officials involved in this matter, my sense is that time is the critical element now. The United States, to its credit, took a decision over a year ago to try and resolve this diplomatically, but without removing the threat of military attack. 

Sending the State Department's third highest official to attend the 5+1 talks with Iran in Geneva last month was a powerful signal of this American preference for a political, peaceful resolution. It gave the Iranians one of the things they covet dearly -- sitting at the table with the United States as equals. 

This positive American -- and 5+1 -- move was broadly negated by their persistence in giving Iran an ultimatum, without much room for discussion or even a cup of tea -- freeze the enrichment process at current levels, the 5+1 told Iran, or else we increase the heat. Iran replied by calling for more talks. The 5+1 decided a few days ago that this was not acceptable, and announced plans to impose new sanctions on Iran.

But a fascinating thing -- very clear here in Washington -- is that the United States is also pushing ahead with plans to keep sending Iran signals of a desire to talk. It now seems very likely that the United States and Iran will open diplomatic interests sections in each other's capitals, and each will be staffed by its own nationals, rather than the third party nationals who now operate these missions. This is the five-star category of diplomatic signals.

The United States seems to have grasped that sanctions and threats will not bring about the change in policies from Tehran that it seeks. But robust, sustained and consistent multinational diplomacy could allow Iran to generate nuclear energy without a bomb, especially if coupled with improvements in bilateral US-Iranian ties. This should be a doable diplomatic deal.

The wild card -- and real concern for Washington -- is whether Israel would panic and unilaterally attack Iran in coming months, plunging the region, and perhaps global energy flows, into a catastrophe. Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said in Washington last week that Iran could one day use nuclear weapons against the United States and Europe, and not only against Israel. Such Israeli hysteria and scaremongering are common in Washington, and usually effective. But this is a rare case where US and Israeli threat perceptions are not exactly the same. It will be important in coming months to see if the Israeli or American view wins out in defining American policy.

The diplomatic dance will continue for months: Though Iran will not do anything meaningful until the Bush administration retires in January, it does not want to break the talks, meetings, proposals and counter-proposals. Therefore the Bush team's policy towards Iran is not realistically aimed at finding a solution this year, but rather at expanding the policy options that will be available to the next American administration. 

I suspect Iran understands this, and will make just enough gestures in the months ahead to make sure that the United States not only sits at the table with Iran, but that they actually start talking about possible compromises, rather than moving the region towards a nuclear holocaust. The result of all this will be new and unknown power relationships among Iran, the United States, Israel, and Europe. The post-Cold War world may be on the verge of being retired.