Iran Edition––Reformist realism on nuclear talks and more

July 24, 2014

Farzaneh Roostaee takes both sides to task

In an op-ed for reformist online news source Rooz Online, journalist Farzaneh Roostaee ruminates on the current state of the negotiations and the possibility of coming to an agreement.

Roostaee took aim at both Iran and the U.S., “Not one Iranian official has made a clear comment about the nuclear negotiations and their remarks on this sensitive issue are entirely emblematic, utterly unsubstantiated…and meant only to be cited by Western, especially American, media.”

She writes that an aggregate of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s statements and other American analysts’ predictions lead one to believe that the inability of both to reconcile differences will create serious problems over the next four months.

To overcome the stubbornness, Roostaee suggests a similar approach to that of the previous negotiations in Geneva, where the most contentious, entrenching issues were put aside and the easier to negotiate issues were worked out. In doing so “they closed off ways for the negotiations to fail.”

Any potential agreement faces a number of obstacles:

Lack of upper echelon commitment. Roostaee cites a Newsweek article that wrote that neither did Foreign Minister Zarif have permission from the Supreme Leader to sign a deal the Westerners were ready for, nor was President Obama able to get big enough concessions from Congress. She explains that Obama has been able to prevent Congress from increasing sanctions, but from now on he will not be able to resist calls to increase pressure on Iran.

American political timeline. “Obama will have just over one month to consult the House and Senate on a potential deal with Iran, after which the mid-term elections could see the Democrats lose their majority…”

American lobbies. “With the signing of the four month extension, the activities of influential, anti-Iranian lobbies in America will increase,” writes Roostaee. She predicts a new wave of sanctions, and that those supporting it believe sanctions are what initially brought Iran to the table. The powerful lobbies are concerned that President Rouhani has brought Iran back “from the precipice”, and that to keep the chance of a deal small, Iran’s economy must not be allowed to get out of crisis mode.

Iran’s demands. According to Roostaee, by raising the number of centrifuges Iran needs to 190,000 just one day before the negotiations continued in Vienna, the Supreme Leader slapped the talks with an insolvable deadlock.

No Congressional and Majlisi will. According to Roostaee, an expert that works for a “strategic studies center” told the New York Times that the House and Senate do not have a plan for peaceful reconciliation with Iran. The expert, that asked not to be named, emphasized that any plan signed with Iran will have problems in Congress due to lobbies that oppose agreement and prefer pressure. She describes a similar atmosphere in Iran, where an uncontrollable conservative opposition to an agreement is taking shape. “Whatever happens,” she writes of the next four months, “the Iranian side is not ready for reconciliation or appeasement of Western demands, which provides little motivation to make concessions to Iran and further complicates the crisis.”

Roostaee concludes that there is not much potential for another extension, and should the negotiations end in no agreement being signed, we are likely to see a return to military threats from Israel, who has opposed any agreement with Iran since the beginning.

July 25, 2014

Boeing returns to Iran

According to Arya News, the first shipment of sanctioned airplane components has arrived in Iran. Boeing and General Electric have been given permission to repair and sell airplane parts to Iran for the first time in more than three decades. The deal covers any parts, documents, and service relating to flight safety for Iran’s commercial airlines.

The article reports that negotiations have been ongoing with Iran Air and now also include a smaller Iran airline, Iran Air Tours. According to Ali Reza Jahangirian, President of Iran Aviation Association there are currently 100 “grounded” Iranian airplanes due to components not being available.

ISNA, a more conservative news source, added that the contract signed between Boeing and Iran Air does not allow for the sale of new airplanes.

July 27, 2014

“The Additional Protocol is implementable.”

––President of the Majlis, Ali Larijani

Reformist newspaper MardomSalari reported on Larijani’s hints that the Majlis may be open to the Additional Protocol. He said that if a comprehensive agreement was reached and all issues resolved, the Additional Protocol would be “implementable” in Iran’s legislative body.

“In the event that the nuclear issue is not resolved, this matter will not be possible due to the opponents in the Majlis,” Larijani told Al-alam News. “Iran will give the necessary guarantees to assure confidence, but there must be the right to produce fuel for power plants and peaceful technology.”

He said that Iran is ready for serious negotiations only, and that some have been playing games. Further complicating the possibility of reaching an agreement are other issues where Iran and the U.S. diverge, like Iraq and Palestine. Velayati goes into more depth on these matters below.

July 29, 2014

“We hope that our negotiating team is able to reach an agreement with the P5+1 in conforming with the Supreme Leader’s changed lines.”

––Ali Akbar Velayati, President of the Center for Strategic Research, on Khamenei’s demands for 190,000 centrifuges

Velayati, former Minister of Foreign Affairs for 16 years, fielded press questions at a CRS meeting. CRS is Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council research arm, a body appointed by and responsible for advising the Supreme Leader.

When asked whether or not an agreement can be reached in the next four months, Velayati began discussing the vast differences in P5+1 members’ individual foreign policies, “One manifest example of these differences between members of the P5+1 is the problems that exist between America and Russia over the Ukraine issue. Both Russia and China’s approaches to Syria and Iraq differ. In addition to this, America’s position in supporting separatists in China conflicts with the Chinese government’s demands.”

He highlighted the strong trade, economic, and technology ties between China, Russia, and Iran that do not exist between Iran and the West. Of the P5+1, he said, “Once we show the world our goodwill, they will not be able to again impose their viewpoints on us.”

He said that the Iran nuclear issue can be resolved easily compared to the problems in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc.

In response to a question about how he thinks the drawn out negotiations are going, he said, “Without a doubt, these nuclear negotiations are considered a diplomatic battle that is not only taking place at the negotiating table, but also in private negotiations.”

According to Velayati, Iran must defend its right to nuclear power because eventually Iran will need to replace the use of fossil fuel with clean energy. “All of Iran’s nuclear activities are in accordance with the IAEA, and they again reported that there are no signs of changes in the applications of nuclear power in Iran.”

“Iran has no demands outside of the frameworks of international law, and in the end Iran is prepared to cooperate with different countries except in building nuclear power plants.” However, he did announce that Iran does not oppose consortiums and cooperation between Iran and some nuclear states, like China and Russia.

He explained that Iran seeks not nuclear research and development, but industrial use and nuclear power plants, “We have been faithful in all of our Geneva commitments, but Iran has not backed away from its red line of having nuclear energy for industrial use. With 500 or 1,500 centrifuges, we cannot carry out our task… For us, the ability to produce enriched uranium and the ability to separate uranium-235 from uranium-238 is important because uranium-235 is unstable, and in mined uranium the amount of uranium-235 is 7/10th of a percent, and after purification that is converted into yellow cake.”

When asked about the Rouhani administration, he posited, “The focus of the 11th administration has been around the nuclear talks, and in this they have had many struggles and successes. Further, the negotiators in the Foreign Ministry are veterans, but if another issue like Iraq, Syria, or Palestine comes to the fore, the government will orient itself accordingly.”