As Americans inch closer to a new administration, President-elect Obama and his staff will have more critical foreign policy decisions to make than any of his recent predecessors. Hezbollah is rearming at an ever-increasing rate. Iraq is backpedalling on its promises to allow US forces to remain in the country and fight Al Qaeda. Syria is talking peace with the west and Israel while continuing to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and Al Qaeda elements in Iraq. Afghanistan is barely holding on while the Taliban grows fiercer. The puppet master in all these cases is Iran, and there is no consensus on how to deal with it. Russia and China are against sanctions, the Germans support them but continue trade at a feverish pace, and the Americans can't decide whether to bomb Iran or talk to it. In the meantime, the puppet master grows stronger, the Gulf states more fearful and Israel more constrained.
Iran has taken a number of steps as of late that should worry the Obama administration. Its military recently built another naval base right near the Straits of Hormuz, capable of tracking western warships and increasing their ability to cripple that vital waterway. Recent intelligence reports from multiple countries have declared that Iran will likely be able to build its first nuclear bomb in the first half of 2009 — years ahead of earlier US intelligence estimates. To deliver those nukes, Iran is investing more and more time and money on its missile delivery program, with recent reports claiming that cities as far away as London will now become a primary target in addition to Israel and the Gulf States should Iranian nuclear facilities be struck. What's more, through the assistance of Iran 's proxy terrorist group Hezbollah, the regime has set up an early warning system in Lebanon capable of tracking US Sixth Fleet and Israeli Air Force activity. All of this spells a recipe for disaster if something is not done soon.
The country most at risk of Iran's ascendancy to power and least comfortable with the idea of a nuclear Iran, is the state of Israel. Israelis don't buy into the argument that nuclear weapons will moderate that nation's actions. Israeli decision-makers still view their environment in part through the lens of the Holocaust, with their security being of paramount importance. As the only Jewish country in the world, Israelis are not willing to wait out the Ahmadinejads of the world who call for their destruction, fund the Syrians, arm Hezbollah and train Hamas. And with the uncertainty of what position the Obama administration will take, it seems more likely than ever that in the next few months before Obama is sworn into office, Israel will act.
Exactly what action Israel will take is unknown, and it does not necessarily mean the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. Indeed to do so effectively would require US assistance, or at the very least, US acquiescence; neither of which Israel has at this point. However one can expect that Israel will use the changing of the guard in the United States to take matters into its own hands in other areas. So nobody should be surprised to hear of an Israeli attack on the Iranian's early warning station on top of Mount Sanine in Lebanon . Nor should one be shocked if Israel finally takes action against Syria or Lebanon in order to try and prevent a further rearming of Hezbollah. That organization, responsible for taking more American lives except for Al Qaeda, has also caused hundreds of Israeli deaths since its creation.
In contravention to UNSCR 1701, not only has Hezbollah not been disarmed, but Syria has in fact been rearming the organization at a frightening pace. Thus, using the precedent set by the US military in its recent raid on Al Qaeda forces operating out of Syria, it is very likely that Israel will carry out strikes using similar justifications. Israelis have proven their willingness to risk international condemnation if they feel their national security is at stake.
While the international community is increasingly transfixed on the economic meltdown, it is important to keep note of these dangerous realities. The Iranian threat is not going away any time soon and the Obama administration will need to place it at the top of his agenda. Otherwise, Iranian influence will grow more powerful, America's allies will feel abandoned and under increasing threat, and United States' credibility will continue to sink.
Joshua Gleis is an International Security Associate at Harvard University's Belfer Center and a visiting scholar at Columbia University.
Gleis, Joshua. “Iran, Israel, Syria and Hezbollah—Here Comes More Conflict.” Ohio Jewish Chronicle, November 20, 2008