North Korea's Oct. 9 Nuclear Test: Successful or Failed?

Institute for Nuclear Materials Management 48th Annual Meeting, Tucson, Arizona, 8-12 July 2007

Abstract

On Oct. 9, 2006, North Korea announced that it had successfully conducted an underground nuclear test. On Oct.16, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence confirmed “North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosion in the vicinity of P'unggye on October 9, 2006. The explosion yield was less than a kiloton.” Because the reported explosive yield is much smaller than other nuclear states’ first tests (about 10-20 kt), the North Korean statement about a successful test has been questioned from the beginning. In this paper, Zhang examined if the test was successful. Based on a technical analysis, Zhang concluded that: whether North Korea’s Oct. 9 nuclear test was successful or failed would be dependent on North Korea’s designed yield. If North Korea planned a yield of 4 kt (as told to China), it would be not a failed test. It could show that North Korea already had confidence to explode a nuclear device and pursued a much more compact warhead for its missiles. Thus, it is urgent to negotiate for dismantling North Korean nuclear and long-range missile programs.