Russian Scientists and Rogue States: Does Western Assistance Reduce the Proliferation Threat?

Abstract

Deborah Yarsike Ball of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Theodore Gerber of the University of Wisconsin consider the likelihood of Russian scientists with knowledge of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons selling their expertise to so-called rogue states seeking to produce weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Using data collected in an unprecedented survey of Russian WMD scientists, the authors assess the effectiveness of U.S.and Western nonproliferation assistance programs aimed at keeping these scientists employed in Russia, where, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, they have watched their salaries plummet and their job security sharply decline. Despite the overall success of these programs, one-fifth of the survey’s participants stated they would consider working in a “rogue” state—a possibility that policymakers must address.