What Leads Voters to Support the Opposition under Authoritarianism? Evidence from Survey Research in Jordan

Abstract

Voters in authoritarian countries face a much different calculus than voters in democratic societies when choosing which candidate to support. Current explanations of their behavior rely on material incentives, arguing that these voters support pro-regime candidates who they believe can deliver economic resources to them or their regions. However, despite these economic incentives, some voters still choose to support the opposition. This paper examines the factors that lead some citizens to act in this way using a post-election survey in the case of Jordan. It argues that discontent, socio- economic status, and personal connections are key determinants of voters decision to vote for the opposition.