US and Iranian negotiators in ongoing nuclear talks must deal not only with their counterparts across the table, but also with the challenge of second-guessing another country’s internal political dynamics. This game reached absurd levels this week when, in an attempt to derail the talks, a group of Republican US Senators sent an "open letter" to Iran claiming that any deal could be undone by a future president. President Barack Obama mocked what he described as an "unusual coalition" between the US and Iranian hardliners. Indeed, the efforts undertaken by vocal hawks in both countries make a sensitive and fragile process even more so.
While Iranians observe this American rift, perhaps wondering who’s in charge, the US team likewise tries to decipher the landscape in Tehran....
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Tabatabai, Ariane. “Where Does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Stand on Nuclear Negotiations?.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 11, 2015