Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan

Abstract

Growing tensions between Taipei and Beijing have led many to call for a more formal U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan. Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution contends that even without direct U.S. military involvement, China cannot conquer Taiwan, a situation that is likely to hold for at least the next decade. Accordingly, O'Hanlon counsels U.S. policymakers against formally committing the United States to the defense of Taiwan, arguing that officials in Taipei could misread such a step as U.S. encouragement of Taiwan's drive for independence—the result of which could be a major confrontation between the United States and China.