Quick Take
The Odds of Iran Getting the Bomb Likely Just Went Up.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s decision to launch strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities is a tragic mistake. Though Iran and its allies in the region have been greatly weakened, they will surely try to strike back hard, raising the danger of a wider war.
More importantly, the strikes demonstrate to Iran’s leadership that it needs a nuclear deterrent. The faction in Iran that thought Iran’s interests would be best served by deals that brought better relations with the West and left Iran with a bomb option but not a bomb should probably be counted among the targets destroyed. Iran is likely to seek to move toward nuclear weapons at secret and deeply buried sites.
In my judgment, the probability that Iran will have nuclear weapons ten years from now is higher now than it would have been without the strikes. That would be a dramatic blow to both Israeli and American security and to the global effort to stem the spread of nuclear weapons.
Israel’s military operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities will be a protracted, multi-stage campaign. With no direct American intervention and constrained by geographic distance and finite military resources, Israel will carry out successive waves to degrade each Iranian site over time. The region must therefore brace for sustained uncertainty, as political and security effects will extend long beyond the initial strikes.
Strategically, the campaign exposes glaring Iranian intelligence failures and underscores Israel’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities in Iran’s strategic landscape. Supreme Leader Khamenei’s call for national unity in the aftermath of the attack signals— in my view—that Tehran perceives a mortal struggle against converging domestic and international threats. Iran must therefore walk a fine line: respond decisively to Israel without triggering American intervention, while maintaining cohesion among diverse domestic constituencies without deepening internal fractures.
More than a military achievement, Israel’s operation has trapped the Iranian regime in a worsening spiral that limits its strategic options and jeopardizes its survival.
The World must Choose between an Abraham Accords Vision or a Middle East Cold War.
Israel’s recent strike on Iranian leadership and nuclear infrastructure marks a daring but calculated escalation. After Iran’s refusal to reach an agreement with Trump and mounting evidence that Tehran was racing toward nuclear capability, Israel acted decisively, not against the Iranian people, but against the IRCG, an extremist regime that funds terror, represses dissent, and destabilizes the region.
The operation demonstrated Israel's intelligence and military capabilities despite diminishing international standing and internal political strain. However, while the majority of Israelis do not support the current government, there remains high trust in the IDF, Mossad, and Shin Bet, along with broad consensus around Israel's national security interests. Israel continues to shoulder the weight of an unpopular battle against the region's extreme actors: decimating Hamas and Hezbollah, confronting the Houthis, and now directly engaging the IRGC.
Several scenarios may unfold: Iran's nuclear capabilities could be destroyed, potentially opening a window for regime collapse. Iran may return to negotiations from a weakened position or double down and accelerate its nuclear efforts. Most likely, tit-for-tat escalation looms between Iran and Israel, potentially drawing in global powers like Russia and China, requiring international mediation.
This moment also presents an opportunity. Five IDF divisions and 53 hostages still remain in Gaza. Until yesterday, Israel and Hamas were locked in a deadlock. Resetting the table, with Arab states taking responsibility for Gaza, could finally end the war and return the hostages. But this depends on deterring Iran, the root source of Israel’s security challenges.
The international community now faces hard choices that will be unpopular with a growing political base in their countries that opposes Israel. The pre–October 7 reality is gone. The world must choose between a thriving Abraham Accords Middle East, including Syria and Lebanon, and others, that requires a deterred and dismantled IRCG, or a fractured region locked in perpetual conflict and a nuclear arms race that could make the Cold War look like a walk in the park.