Do Tripwires Deter? How Small Forward Deployments Contribute to Deterrence

Forward-deployed tripwire forces are one tool used to enhance the credibility of security guarantees. Conventional wisdom holds that these vulnerable deployments improve deterrence by increasing the credibility of the sending state’s commitment to fight to defend the host, but recent scholarship has questioned their effectiveness. Critics argue that because tripwires lack capability, and publics do not punish leaders who back down, they do not deter. After distinguishing tripwires from other forward deployments, we find in three case studies drawing on archival evidence that tripwires enhance credibility through the mechanisms of international reputation and brinkmanship.