Does Western Help With Missile Targeting Cross Putin’s Red Line in War Against Ukraine?

This is the inaugural entry in Tech and Tactics, a series of blog posts conceived by RM editor Ivan Arreguín-Toft on how military technology is being used in the war in Ukraine.

To hear Vladimir Putin say it the other day, NATO countries assisting Ukraine in collecting and using information for its strikes against targets inside Russia would cross one of his red lines, prompting him to escalate. Speaking on Russian TV Sept. 12, Putin identified two reasons why NATO countries giving Ukraine permission to use their long-range missiles for such strikes would mean that these countries “are at war with Russia.” The first reason is that for Ukraine to use such missiles, these NATO countries will have to provide Kyiv with satellite intelligence on targets in Russia. The second reason is that some of these countries’ specialists would have to enter data into the Western-supplied missiles’ targeting systems because it is something Ukrainians cannot do themselves, according to Putin. “We will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us,” the Russian leader warned.¹

Putin’s reasoning is problematic, however. First, Ukraine has been using U.K.-made Storm Shadow missiles, which Ukraine wants the Biden administration to approve for its use against targets inside Russia along with their French-made analogue Scalp, for strikes inside parts of Ukraine that are controlled by the Russian armed forces and which Putin describes as Russia’s own (e.g. Crimea), at least since 2023.² Thus, if Ukrainian personnel are, indeed, unable to enter targeting data into these missiles, then Western specialists have been doing it for them since at least 2023. Second, Ukraine has reportedly been using intelligence data collected by satellites operated by entities located in NATO countries, including the U.S., since the first half of 2022.

But if these two circumstances have been in place for more than a year, then why has Putin not already implemented an “appropriate decision” in response? I think the answer to that question lies in the capabilities of missiles like Storm Shadows, the most advanced versions of which can reportedly carry a 450 kilogram warhead at speeds of up to 988 kilometers per hour to a distance of 555 kilometers, enabling these air-launched bunker-busters to theoretically reach Moscow if launched from northwestern parts of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv. Unless I am mistaken, none of Ukraine’s existing drones can carry so much payload at such a speed to such a distance. Thus, if the U.S. approves Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadows³ and Scalps for strikes inside “mainland” Russia, these missiles will pose greater threats to targets such as air bases and command facilities in Russia. In addition, deep strikes by these missiles inside Russia’s internationally recognized borders would undermine Putin’s persistent efforts to shield residents of “mainland Russia” from the impact of the war, even if it hinders his war effort (recall the absence of a general mobilization in Russia in spite of significant personnel shortages in Russia’s fighting force in 2022 and 2023).

It is the damage that Storm Shadows and Scalps could cause to Russia’s military-political infrastructure, as well as to the Kremlin’s efforts to make sure the war stays in the background of most Russians’ lives so that they remain content with his rule, that may cross Putin’s red line, triggering his “appropriate” response to NATO countries. One form that response could take would be Russian attacks on facilities in European countries used for transit of these missiles to Ukraine, such as an airbase in Poland, in what would then trigger NATO’s Article 5. In fact, that is the scenario that the White House reportedly fears, explaining why its spokesman John Kirby observed on Sept. 13 that Putin “has obviously proven capable of escalation over the last now going on three years” and that “we take these comments seriously.” 

I, too, think Putin’s comments need to be taken seriously, but with a caveat: If Putin were to escalate, it would be over the actual use of long-range missiles against mainland Russia, rather than over who enters missile targeting data and from where that data is sourced, especially given that some of these activities have been occurring for some time now. 

Footnotes

1. Putin’s warnings were quickly reiterated by his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and his U.N. envoy Vasily Nebenzia, with Nebenzia habitually rattling the nuclear saber, as did some of Russia’s so-called war correspondents who typically toe the Kremlin line.
2. It should be noted that Russian forces have managed to intercept at least some of these Storm Shadow missiles, according to the Russian MoD and pro-war Russian Telegram channel “Voyevoda Veshchaet.”
3. Storm Shadow is made by a company controlled by British, French and Italian interests, and some of its components are made in the US, giving all four countries a veto on its use, according to the Guardian.