Escalate to Survive? Nuclear First Use in Contemporary Great Power Conflict

Russia, China, and the United States have different approaches to nuclear first-use options. This could fuel nuclear escalation in a conflict scenario. Conventional and geographic vulnerabilities explain Russia’s first-use options, which are optimized for state survival. China has weak reasons to use nuclear weapons first to compel reunification with Taiwan because it prefers using non-nuclear means. In contrast, the United States maintains options for first use largely because of its extended deterrence commitments to allies and beliefs about damage limitation.