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Middle Powers and the Multipolar International Order: Turkey and the BRICS

Senem Aydın-Düzgit analyzes Turkey's potential membership of BRICS, as nation states convene in Kazan, Russia.

On 2 September, a top Kremlin official declared that Turkey had applied to become a member of the BRICS group. This came as a shock to many, as Turkey is a NATO member state as well as an EU candidate country with close economic ties to the Union. The Turkish government neither confirmed nor denied the claims, but simply stated that “a process is underway” without specifying the details. It remains to be seen whether the BRICS summit this week will deliver more insight as to the nature and outcome of this process. Regardless of how the matter will unfold, one question persists. How is it that a country with relatively deep ties to Western security and economic architecture can contemplate joining the BRICS or even enable the prospect of its accession to be a subject of global discussion? 

The answer lies in the shift towards multipolarity in the world order and the corresponding move of middle powers like Turkey to seek strategic autonomy in this evolving system. Similar to other middle powers, Turkey perceives multipolarity as an opportunity to hedge between global powers, pursue more autonomous foreign policies, and exert influence in its wider region. It wishes to remain a NATO member and benefit from its security guarantees, while cultivating closer links with the BRICS group. Although it has a customs union agreement with the EU, it seeks to make use of the shift in the global economy towards the non-West and expand its trade and investment with the BRICS countries. Thanks to the rise in their share in the global economy, its trade with the BRICS bloc has almost doubled in the last decade. It supports the Ukrainian war effort, yet also fosters close relations with Russia on which it heavily relies for its growing energy needs. More recently, it has been seeking to attract more investment from China. Hedging also comes with a push for changes in the global order. It has been a long-time supporter of UN security council reform. More recently, it has submitted an official request to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), bringing it closer to the BRICS group on an issue of key geopolitical significance for its wider region. 

As of now, Turkey’s membership of BRICS seems a distant possibility due to the fact that Turkey is closely entangled with the West not only in security terms through its membership of NATO, but also from an economic standpoint in terms of its export markets, origin of FDI, technology and finance, and participation in Global Value Chains. While the mere discussion of its consideration of BRICS membership bestows particularly Russia with a boost of legitimacy vis-à-vis the West, it is highly doubtful whether the BRICS countries would ultimately agree on the membership of a NATO ally. Yet, maybe the true motive of this application is not actual membership itself but Turkey’s wish to strike another transactional bargain with the West. Hence a key piece of the puzzle lies in whether and if so how the West, in particular the EU, will react to this prospect. 

Recommended citation

Aydin Duzgit, Senem. “Middle Powers and the Multipolar International Order: Turkey and the BRICS.” October 22, 2024