Nuclear Belarus: Explaining Russian Security Guarantees

In 2022, Russia announced plans to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus, the first such deployment in an allied state since the Soviet Union’s collapse. Such deployments carry significant risks, including unauthorized use and escalation, making it important to consider Russia’s motivations, which scholarship frames as assurance, extended deterrence, and power projection. Evidence suggests that Russia’s primary objectives are deterring Western interference in Belarus and advancing its strategic interests—intimidating NATO, sharing responsibility with Belarus, and strengthening its position in future arms-control negotiations—while the assurance rationale appears less persuasive.