Anticipatory Arms Control for the AI Age

All models are wrong, but some are useful,” observed statistician George E.P. Box. Indeed, today’s large language models and other artificial intelligence systems are far from perfect. Yet, as components of larger social and technical systems, these tools may be reaching a threshold at which their design could shape the future of world order as much as the choices of their users. Frontier AI laboratories have consequently become powerful actors, capable of altering global security faster than states and international organizations can design regulations. Decisions about whether and how to release advanced models can directly affect risks to humanity posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD).