Russia Condemns Deadly Attacks on Iran While Weighing Strategic Risks, Opportunities

Russia’s official line regarding the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran has been, so far, to condemn the attacks, call for the preservation of Iran’s sovereignty and position the Kremlin as a guardian of “law” and diplomacy. Meduza reports that Russian authorities have called the crisis an “unprovoked act of armed aggression” and criticized the U.S. for its “serial” “practice of hunting foreign leaders,” although Vladimir Putin refrained from naming names of those he believes are guilty of the "cynical" murder of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, Russia’s Kremlin-controlled television has leveled its criticism at the West’s “tried-and-true trick” of luring adversaries into talks and then striking, Meduza reports. Voices on Russian television have also rattled the nuclear saber, saying that the “only thing that can deter the enemy is nuclear weapons and an iron will that leaves no doubt they will be used,” according to Meduza. Russia’s pro-war Telegram channels (“Z-channels”) also rattled the nuclear saber, suggesting Russia let Tehran borrow a nuclear bomb, and have called into question the wisdom of “negotiat[ing] about anything with Trump” following the strikes on Iran, Meduza reports.

As for Russia’s actual strategic calculation, it appears that the Kremlin believes the Iran crisis is dangerous, as it could lead to a regime change in Iran that would impact Russia geopolitically and economically. However, the Kremlin appears to also be considering the potential dividends of the crisis for Russia, such as the diversion of U.S. focus and Western weapons supplies away from Ukraine.

See below an evolving selection of (mostly) Russian officials and experts’ views on the Iran crisis, arranged in chronological and alphabetical order.

Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026:

• Alexei Chepa, First Deputy Head of the Russian State Duma’s International Affairs Committee expressed hope that the United States will become preoccupied with the conflict in Iran and “forget” about Ukraine and assessed that the new conflict will likely delay a peace deal in Ukraine. (ISW, 02.28.26)
• Russian Foreign Ministry: “This is a deliberate, premeditated and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent U.N. member state, in direct violation of the fundamental principles and norms of international law... The aggressors’ intentions are evident and have been stated openly: to dismantle the constitutional order and remove the leadership of a state they deem undesirable because it has refused to yield to the dictates of force and hegemonic pressure. Responsibility for the impact of this man-made crisis, including the unpredictable chain reaction and the spiral of escalating violence, rests entirely with them... We call for an immediate return to a political and diplomatic track.” (RF MFA, 02.28.26)
• Russian Foreign Ministry: “Washington and Tel-Aviv have once again embarked on a dangerous adventure that is rapidly bringing the region to the brink of a humanitarian, economic and—this cannot be ruled out—radiological catastrophe. The aggressors' intentions are clear and openly declared: to destroy the constitutional order and overthrow the government of a state they find undesirable, which has refused to submit to the diktat of force and hegemonism.” (The Moscow Times, 02.28.26)
• Sergei Lavrov, foreign minister of Russia, on Feb. 28 told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, that Moscow would work to help bring a swift and peaceful end to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Lavrov said Moscow could use its seat in the United Nations Security Council to “facilitate a search for a peaceful solution.” The Iranian foreign minister, who initiated the phone call, said Tehran was grateful for Moscow’s “unwavering and firm support.” (Wall Street Journal, 02.28.26)
• Sergei Lavrov, foreign minister of Russia, spoke with Qatar’s prime minister/foreign minister Mohammed Al Thani to discuss the Iran crisis and “unanimously called for ceasing any hostilities” that risk destabilizing the region. They urged an urgent return to diplomacy among the U.S., Israel and Iran “on the basis of the U.N. Charter and the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty,” with full regard for Gulf Arab interests. Lavrov also reiterated Russia’s proposal for a collective security architecture in the Gulf. (Russian MFA, 02.28.26)
• Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson, said: “The peacemaker [Donald Trump] has once again shown his true face. All the negotiations with Iran are just a cover operation. No one ever doubted that. No one really wanted to agree on anything in particular. The question is who has more patience to wait for the inglorious end of their enemy.” (Medvedev’s Telegram account, 02.28.26)
• Leonid Slutsky, Chair of the Russian State Duma International Affairs Committee criticized U.S. aims in striking Iran and called for both the United Nations Security Council and the broader international community to intervene in the situation to stop the strike. (ISW, 02.28.26)

Sunday, March 1, 2026:

• Sergei Balmasov, an expert at the Institute of Middle East Studies and the Russian International Affairs Council, said: "American and Israeli forces are trying to completely incapacitate Iran's leadership by knocking out the most important chains of command. Iran, of course, is currently responding, but these strikes aren't that critical for Israel. And given that Iranian missiles and drones sometimes hit tourist areas in neighboring Middle Eastern countries, it risks making even more enemies in the region." "Trump has nowhere to go; he's involved himself in this, and he'll need to secure a convincing victory before the midterm congressional elections. If he can accomplish what no American president has been able to do for nearly 50 years, it will be a resounding success for the Republicans.” (Gazeta.ru, 03.01.26)
• Russian Foreign Ministry: “[The U.S. and Israel] cannot but recognize that they are effectively prompting countries cross the globe, and the Middle East in particular, to pursue ever more grave means of countering emerging threats by plunging the Middle East into the abyss of uncontrolled escalation.” (The Moscow Times, 03.01.26)
• Mikhail Krutikhin, co-founder and leading analyst of RusEnergy: “Unless the unpredictable Trump prematurely ends the war in Iran and declares any interim success a triumphant victory, the systematic destruction of the Islamic Republic's military potential and political elite will continue. Bombs and missiles won't lead to a change in the country's political system, but a week or two of attacks could create the conditions for radical changes in the country's governance system and even a revision of its political course.” (The Moscow Times, 03.01.26)
• Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, told UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed in a Feb. 28 call that U.S.‑Israeli strikes on Iran were an “unprovoked aggression” and “unacceptable.” Both ministers called the escalation “destabilizing” and a threat to Gulf Arab security, and agreed on the “need for an immediate cessation of all hostilities” and a return to a political‑diplomatic track that takes into account the “legitimate interests of all regional states.” (Russian MFA, 03.01.26)¹
• Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy: "For Iran, this is undoubtedly a war for the survival of the system that has existed in the country for the past 47 years. This is a revolution's battle for its future... Iranian ideology itself has lost much of the fervor it once had over the past half-century, and therefore there remains the possibility that a U.S.-Israeli military operation will fuel protest sentiments in the country. I believe this is precisely what Trump was counting on. Moreover, Iran's resistance capacity, to put it mildly, is not infinite." Moreover, the U.S. decision to launch such an operation and eliminate the Supreme Leader represents "an entirely new level of international lawlessness," Lukyanov believes. (Gazeta.ru, 03.01.26)
• Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus section at IMEMO RAS: “The South Caucasus is preparing for the worst, since Iran is one of the key players in the South Caucasus and its fate will inevitably affect the region. … Against the backdrop of the weakening influence of Moscow and Tehran, the United States and China are increasing their role in the South Caucasus. At the same time, Beijing is betting on investment and trade, while Washington relies on military-political methods. If the United States carries out strikes for a few days, nothing terrible will happen to Iran. But if they drag on and are supplemented by a ground operation, the consequences could be catastrophic. And this will directly affect the South Caucasus. First and foremost, Armenia and Azerbaijan will face an influx of refugees. It is no coincidence that many Iranians have been buying up real estate in these countries in recent years.” (NG.ru, 03.01.26)
• Vladimir Mukhin, senior writer at Nezavisimaya Gazeta: “Iran’s strikes on targets of the U.S., Israel and their allies will have a negative effect on the flow of military assistance that Western countries can provide to Ukraine. The longer the war in the Middle East lasts, the greater the need will be for weaponry, especially air defense systems.” (NG.ru, 03.01.26)
• Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the U.N., decried the strikes as a “genuine betrayal of diplomacy” and dismissed Western arguments that Iran was seeking to acquire nuclear weapons as “completely unfounded.” “Despite its willingness to engage in the diplomatic process, Tehran is once again being stabbed in the back,” Nebenzya said at an emergency U.N. Security Council session. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.26)
• Vladimir Putin, Russian president, expressed condolences to the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian over the assassination of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei and members of his family. Putin wrote: “Please, accept my deepest condolences on the assassination of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Seyyed Ali Khamenei and members of his family, committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law. In our country, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei will be remembered as an outstanding statesman who made an enormous personal contribution to the development of friendly ties between Russia and Iran and to raising them to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Please, convey my most sincere sympathy and support to the family and friends of the Supreme Leader, as well as to the leadership and to the entire people of Iran.” (Kremlin.ru, 03.01.26)
• Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russian-Iranian relations: “Everything that is happening in the Middle East is threatening Russian interests,” he said. “It’s the change of a norm, it’s the change of a pattern—how world powers act toward authoritarian countries. And certainly it’s not a good signal for Russia.” “There is no doubt that Putin takes it personally,” Smagin said, likening the situation to the killings of other Russian allies like Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 2006... “Russia has invested a lot of effort and money² in Iran,” Smagin said. “Certainly, if we imagine regime change or if we imagine instability in Iran, all these projects are under threat.” “Russia can even benefit short term,” Smagin said of the potential to leapfrog Iran in exports to China. “And maybe even these benefits can be really significant.” (The Moscow Times, 03.01.26)

Monday, March 2, 2026:

• Oleg Barabanov, program director of the Valdai Club asks “Who is next?” Barabanov concludes that, once the blows end, “nothing will prevent Trump from declaring the outcome of his special operation a ‘great victory,’” and pointedly asks, “Which country will Trump choose for the third time… Will it be Cuba, pressure on which Trump intensified after Venezuela? Or will he choose some other country?”, implying that the next target is likely to be Cuba or another vulnerable, anti‑U.S. autocracy. (Valdai Club, 03.02.26)
• Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Endowment points out that, unlike after the abduction of Nicolás Maduro, Putin issued a harshly worded condolence telegram over Khamenei’s killing but carefully avoided naming the culprit: “the main thing in Putin’s telegram is what is not said, namely: who killed Khamenei,” and that he “formulated it in such a way as to avoid direct accusations against Donald Trump,” which Baunov says reveals Putin as a “weak strongman” who “in reality cannot afford even verbally to hurt an American president who is destroying his allies.” Comparing Russia’s complaints to its own behavior in Ukraine, Baunov quotes the Foreign Ministry’s line that the attacks “were once again carried out under the cover of a renewed negotiation process” and “contrary to the signals conveyed to the Russian side,” then remarks that “Russia itself demands that Ukraine conduct negotiations precisely under fire, and it itself denied its interest and intention to invade Ukraine when it gathered troops on its borders,” noting that “treachery is always more noticeable in the eye of one’s neighbor.” (Meduza, 03.02.26)
• Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy: “The killing of the head of one state by the forces of another state and by decision of its leadership, in the same pattern as the liquidation of the leaders of terrorist organizations or drug cartels, is a fundamentally different dimension of world politics.” On Trump’s regional design, Lukyanov writes that the plan is “military power dominance by Israel… combined with intensified economic interaction between Israel and the Gulf monarchies, in the interests above all of the United States,” with a weakened Iran clearing the way for influence “from the Caucasus to Central (and partly South) Asia.” His final judgment: “The bet on naked force and coercion in world politics is growing. Everything else is brushed aside. Even hypocritical moral or ideological framing is no longer needed.” (Russia in Global Affairs, 03.02.26)
• Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson warns that Trump has “committed a gross mistake,” saying that “by his decision he has put all Americans under potential attack,” and stressing that the late ayatollah was “the spiritual father of almost 300 million Shiites. And now he is also a martyr. Draw the rest of the conclusions yourselves. And now there is no doubt that Iran will with triple energy seek to create nuclear weapons.” (TASS, 03.02.26)
• Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson, said: “This is a war between the U.S. and its allies to maintain global dominance. The pigs don't want to leave the trough.” (Gazeta.ru/TASS, 03.02.26)
• Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, said: “We are in constant contact with the leadership of Iran and are discussing the situation surrounding that country.” Peskov expressed “deep disappointment” that Oman-brokered negotiations with U.S. and Iranian officials over Tehran’s nuclear program once again “deteriorated to the point of outright aggression” despite reports of progress having been made between the two countries. (AFP/MT, 03.02.26)
• Alexei Pushkov, a member of Russia’s Federation Council and the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building: “Iran has declared it will not negotiate with the United States and has adopted a potential ‘kamikaze’ stance. Apparently, Tehran is prepared to bear both military and personal losses, but intends to inflict maximum damage on its enemies. Western media have begun writing about a ‘war of attrition,’ but this is not what's at stake—it's a competition of mutual losses. And it will continue until someone falters first or runs out of missiles.” (Telegram, 03.02.26)
• Vladimir Putin, Russian president, has offered to mediate an end to the U.S.‑Israeli war against Iran in a flurry of calls with Gulf leaders. According to Kremlin readouts, Putin told Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa that Moscow was ready to use “all possibilities at hand to actively help stabilize the situation” in the region. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Russia could play a “positive, stabilizing role” given its ties with both Tehran and Gulf capitals. Putin also told UAE ruler Mohamed bin Zayed he was prepared to convey Emirati complaints about Iranian attacks directly to Tehran. (Financial Times, 03.02.26)³
• Ivan Timofeev, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council:  “After sanctions comes the use of military force … In relation to Iran, the U.S. has applied sanctions since the Islamic Revolution of 1979… In general, the practice of combining sanctions and military force in the hands of the United States is widespread.” “Shortly before the airstrikes, Iran experienced mass protests… Protests may have served as an indicator of the weakness of its political system and confidence that an effective military strike would lead to the collapse of a weakened vertical of power.” (Valdai Club/ Russian International Affairs Council, 03.02.26)
• Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia’s Governor to the IAEA Board of Governors said Russia convened the emergency IAEA Board because the “tragic events in Iran are directly related to the Agency’s mandate. Ulyanov insists that “any nuclear installations under no circumstances should become the target of strikes,” reminding members that “attacks on nuclear facilities and threats of such attacks are a violation of international law, the U.N. Charter and the Statutes of the U.N. and the IAEA,” and emphasizes that Russian personnel are still working at the Bushehr nuclear plant, demanding Washington and Tel Aviv “immediately cease military actions and return the situation to the channel of political‑diplomatic settlement” to avoid “catastrophic consequences for the entire Middle East.” (Russian MFA / IAEA Board, 03.02.26)
• Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Ursula von der Leyen’s comment that the people of Iran now have “new hope”: “Here it is, Satanism in all its glory. Watch and don't look away. After the murder of 150 elementary school girls in the city of Minab, ‘the people of Iran have new hope?’ Cursed be both those who performed this ritual sacrifice to the forces of evil and those who saw ‘new hope’ in it.” (Telegram, 03.02.26)

Endnotes

1. Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call on March 1 in which both “condemned the massive military strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iranian territory,” calling them “acts of aggression [that] grossly violate norms of international law and the fundamental principles of the U.N. Charter” and destabilize the region. They stressed the “unacceptability of a course aimed at overthrowing legally elected authorities of sovereign states,” urged an immediate halt to hostilities, and backed a “political‑diplomatic settlement” of issues over Iran, pledging to coordinate in the U.N. Security Council, IAEA, SCO, and the “Group of Friends in Defense of the U.N. Charter.” (Russian MFA, 03.01.26)
2. That includes the North-South corridor, a multibillion-dollar planned railway route between Russia and Iran through the South Caucasus, and a $25 billion deal to build four nuclear reactors in southern Iran. There are some benefits for Russia from the weekend attacks, but these are likely short term and limited to oil exports. (The Moscow Times, 03.01.26)
3. The Kremlin said Vladimir Putin held four phone calls with Gulf leaders on March 2 as he seeks to position Russia as a mediator in the U.S.‑Israeli war against Iran. According to official readouts, he spoke sequentially with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (14:45), Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (15:30), Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa (16:30) and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (18:10), discussing the Iran crisis and Russia’s offer to “help stabilize the situation” through diplomacy. (Kremlin, 03.02.26)

This item is part of Russia Matters’ “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking.