Seeing Through “Transparent Oceans”: Emerging Technology, Submarine Vulnerability, and the Future of MAD

In a report for International Security, Eli Sanchez discusses how ballistic missile submarines are generally seen as secure second-strike deterrents due to their stealth, but some analysts worry emerging technologies could expose them to detection. Sanchez examines quantum sensors, AI, space-based sensors, and advanced acoustics, finding that only AI-enhanced passive sonar processing offers a real, though incremental, improvement in detection capability. He concludes that none of these technologies pose a meaningful near-term threat to currently survivable SSBN forces.