Sino-Russian Arctic Cooperation: Systemic Pressure and Historical Distrust

Abstract

China and Russia have deepened their cooperation in the Arctic, building on their ‘no limit’ relationship that encompasses both economic and political cooperation. Recently, this cooperation has expanded to include joint naval exercises between the Chinese Coast Guard and Russian patrol vessels. This article examines Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation through a neoclassical realist framework that incorporates both systemic and domestic factors into the analysis. We offer the domestic variable of historical distrust, an approach often overlooked by other realist theories. Historical distrust can be understood as as negative historical events or developments which impact states’ current foreign policy decisions. We argue that while systemic pressures increasingly align China and Russia’s Arctic interests, historical distrust between the two states constrains them from forming an alliance in the region. This article demonstrates the value of neoclassical realism in analysing Arctic geopolitics and highlights the significance of historical factors in shaping of current Sino-Russian relations.