The Trilateral Dilemma: Great Power Competition, Global Nuclear Order, and Russia’s War on Ukraine

Scholars and policy analysts have debated the health of the global nuclear order since the beginning of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Their analysis often yields disturbing predictions about the future of the nonproliferation regime, arms control, and the “taboo” against using nuclear weapons. This article concludes, however, that the components of this longstanding order are durable. They have proven robust to Russian nuclear threats, just as they did in the face of past great power transgressions. Yet, cracks are forming that will require attention in the long run as the nuclear order built by Washington and Moscow adapts to Beijing’s emergence. The best remedy appears to be enhanced trilateral cooperation between China, Russia, and the United States. Active Chinese participation is necessary to sustain the global nuclear order due to—and in spite of—great power competition.