China Isn't Buying Up the Arctic: New Harvard Study Offers Reality Check on Chinese Arctic Investments

June 23, 2025 - Cambridge, MA - Chinese investment in the Arctic has been exaggerated in Western media and public debate, according to a new study published today by researchers at Harvard University and Canada’s Trent University, contradicting a common narrative that China is "buying up the Arctic" through its Polar Silk Road initiative.

Over the last two decades, China, which calls itself a “near-Arctic state,” has sought to increase its influence in the region by investing in infrastructure and other business ventures, contributing to scientific research, and participating in multilateral treaties. Arctic states have viewed China’s economic overtures with suspicion, citing concerns that investments will give China political leverage or that Chinese research stations will be used for military purposes.

Using open-source data from sources in seven different languages, authors Anders Christoffer Edstrøm, Guðbjörg Ríkey Th. Hauksdóttir, and P. Whitney Lackenbauer created an interactive map of China’s investment interests in the Arctic region from 2007-2025, including foreign direct investment, involvement in energy and infrastructure projects, land purchases, and research stations. The authors found that only a small proportion of proposed Chinese investments have fully materialized. Most investments have either failed or stalled due to a range of reasons, including market factors, geopolitical and domestic political obstacles, environmental concerns, and security concerns.

Outside of Russia, most recent Chinese investments in the other Arctic states have stalled or failed. The North American Arctic (the United States, Canada, and Greenland) has received minimal Chinese investment. While Greenland has received the most attention in the debate around China’s Arctic investments, the authors observe that most Chinese investments in Greenland have failed. Of eight proposed investments, seven failed or never materialized, and the future of the Citroen mine is currently uncertain.

“Inflated claims about Chinese investments have been used to justify different policies and stances, such as the Trump administration’s insistence that Denmark has failed to protect Greenland from Chinese encroachment,” said second author Hauksdóttir, Arctic Initiative research fellow and a PhD at the University of Iceland. “We hope this brief can facilitate informed debate and decision-making among the Arctic states when they are deciding how to engage with China.”

China’s largest economic footprint in the Arctic is in Russia. Due to Western economic sanctions, Russia views China as a necessary economic partner to develop its Arctic zone. While Russia and China have cooperated on large investments in oil and gas production and infrastructure construction, several proposed projects have not panned out, largely due to perceived economic risks by Chinese investors.

“Many Chinese investments are economically significant for their host communities, and Arctic states must distinguish between projects that pose a security risk and those that are benign and desirable. We aren’t claiming that there is no cause for concern, but those debates must be rooted in reality,” said first author Edstrøm, Arctic Initiative visiting scholar and a PhD candidate at the High North Center for Business and Governance at Nord University Business School.

"In a world of heightened great power competition and concern about Arctic security, it is imperative that our positions are grounded in evidence-based assessments,” said Lackenbauer, Canada Research Chair in the Study of the Canadian North and Professor at Trent University’s School for the Study of Canada. “China’s Arctic ambitions are well documented, but our findings suggest that the seven like-minded Arctic states have awoken to the risks associated with various forms of foreign direct investment in the region and have responded more decisively and effectively than most popular commentary might lead us to believe."

Further Information

Read the full paper, "Cutting Through Narratives on Chinese Arctic Investments," here.

About the Arctic Initiative

Launched in 2017, the Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs seeks to build pathways to inform policy decisions and actions that advance sustained Arctic cooperation and resilience. Our team of faculty, fellows, and staff works closely with officials and experts across the circumpolar region to advance work in five focus areas: enhancing community resilience in a changing Arctic, developing responses to the local and global impacts of permafrost thaw, addressing issues in Arctic Ocean management, charting a course for future Arctic governance, and training the next generation of Arctic leaders.