The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
The decision-making architecture of Iran weaves revolutionary and traditional elements to manage its domestic and foreign policies. Since the 1979 revolution, the international community has attempted to deal with the Iranian problem through approaches normally associated with traditional state structures. However, should the world deal with Iran as a country, a cause, or both?
Are there other examples when the world has faced a similar dilemma?
What does this mean for intelligence services who need to advise policymakers on Iranian developments and suggest potential policy opportunities?
In this seminar, Mr. Roule will review these issues through the lenses of the Iran nuclear deal and Iran's regional adventurism.