Speaker: Raymond Wang, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program
How will a rising China shape international order? This seminar argues that rising powers neither seek to replace the existing rules, nor are they content with following the rules to pursue change from within. Instead, rising powers are cautious opportunists—China shapes international order by commandeering the very rules the U.S. helped create.
Rising powers are sensitive to relative gains because of their competitive relationship with the incumbent. Consequently, they seek to lower the costs of change and increase friction for incumbent pushback. Working with existing rules—being cautious—achieves both goals. This research presents the theory of cautious opportunism, which explains how rising powers like China choose between four strategies that work with existing rules to enact change — (1) drift, which derives benefits by obstructing change to outdated rules; (2) cooptation, which repurposes rules towards new ends; (3) reform, which explicitly changes the content of the rule; and (4) exceptionalism, which mitigates the rule’s negative effects through hypocrisy. Strategy choice is based on the rule’s net utility, precision, and whether China has a high baseline level of support for its desired change.
Only when ‘cautious’ strategies have failed will China assess the costs of creating a new institution and opportunistically wait for a window with lowered risks of incumbent pushback. The speaker tests this argument through case studies of China’s behavior in international trade, development finance, arms control, and maritime issues.
The project advances the power transition literature beyond the simple binary of rule compliance and shows how challengers can appropriate rules created by those in power. It also calls for a conceptual shift in international relations: instead of asking if China is playing by the rules, we should focus on what it is doing to the rules.
Admittance is on a first come–first served basis. Tea and Coffee Provided.
